Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended mixed. SU ended near 13.47. Range was 13.44-13.65. SX ended near 13.40. Range was 13.33-13.55. USDA report tomorrow. Recent SU range has been 13.12-13.87. Most doubt USDA will make big changes to US or World soybean supply and demand numbers. Post USDA price action could depend on US final crop size and new export demand. US Midwest 10 day weather forecast calls for dry/warm weather east, normal weather east and south. Soyoil continues to trade higher following higher palmoil and lower than expected palmoil stocks. Trade est US 2021 soybean crop near 4,375 mil bu vs USDA 4,405. Range 4,273 to 4,450. Trade est US 2021 soybean yield near 50.4 vs USDA 50.8 and 50.2 last year. Trade est US 20/21 soybean carryout near 148 vs USDA 135, 21/22 159 vs USDA 155. Higher carryout is linked to talk of lower demand. World 21/22 soybean end stocks are est at 94.6 vs 94.5.
CORN
Corn futures traded higher. CU ended near 5.56. Range was 5.48-5.58. CZ ended near 5.59. Range was 5.52-5.61. Since mid-July, CU has traded mostly in the 5.40 to 5.60 range. Uncertainty over impact record ECB and south yields versus below average yield in the NW Midwest has kept buyers and sellers on the sideline until more is known about US final crop. Some feel Farmers will not sell below 5.40 but end user might buy. Conversely, farmers could increase sales closer to 5.80 but end users may be unwilling to pay up at that price for extended coverage. USDA could make some big changes on tomorrows report. Most look for lower Brazil crop, higher US demand and lower US 2021/22 carryout. Trade est US 2021 corn crop near 15,004 mil bu vs USDA 15,165. Range 14,828 to 15,210. Trade est est US 2021 corn yield near 177.6 vs USDA 179.5and 172.0 last year. Trade est US 21/22 corn carryout at 1,297 vs USDA 1,432. Trade also est World end stocks at 288.2 vs USDA 291.2. Brazil crop is est at 88.7 vs 93.0. Weekly US corn export sales est near 500-900 mt. Total commit is near 62.8 mmt vs 38.0 last year. Weekly US ethanol prod and stocks were lower than last week but above ly.
WHEAT
Wheat futures were mixed to lower. Some liquidation of long wheat short corn spreads may have offered resistance to wheat. USDA could make big changes to World supply and demand. Most look for USDA to drop Canada, Russia and US crops from July. This could lower World wheat ended stocks especially among World exporter. Matif and Black Sea wheat futures has made new contract highs. Trade est US 2021 wheat crop at 1,723 mil bu vs USDA 1,746. Spring 325 vs 345. Winter 1,363 vs 1,354. Trade est US wheat 21/22 carryout at 644 vs USDA 665. World wheat end stocks are est at 288.2 mmt vs USDA 291.2. Key could be Canada and Russia crop. USDA current est Canada 31.5 and Russia 85.0. Trade 21 and 77. Weekly US wheat export sales est near 500-800 mt. Total commit is near 3.7 mmt vs 4.6 last year. US HRW fob prices are a premium to World exporters especially east Europe and Black Sea.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
