Ag Market View Aug 10th
Soybeans rallied and ended near 13.48. SU tested 13.54. Resistance starts at 13.62 then 13.67 and 13.73. Some feel US farmers could increase cash sales above 13.80. Bulls feel tightening global soybean stocks to use ratio could suggest nearby soybean futures could eventually trade over 14.50. Natural hurdle for futures to trade above resistance is approaching US harvest and potential record yields in ECB and south states and uncertainty over USDA August soybean yield and carryout guesses. USDA continued to rate the US soybean crop 60 pct G/E vs 74 last year. Highest rate crops are in LA, MS, TN, IL, WI, KY and OH. Lowest rated crops are in ND, SD, MN and IA. USDA announced new US soybean sales to unknown and China. China has imported 83 mmt soybeans to date. They need to import 14 mmt Aug-Sep to reach USDA goal or down 25 pct from last year Aug-Sep.
Corn futures ended lower but off session lows. CU ended near 5.49. Range was 5.44-5.50. CZ ended near 5.53. Range was 5.47-5.54. Since mid July CZ has traded between 5.40 and 5.60 with a midpoint near the 20 day 5.53. Support is 5.40 and the 100 day 5.44. Resistance is 5.60 and 50 day. Market awaits new China buying and USDA August est of US corn yield and 21/22 carryout. Trade est US corn yield near 177.6 vs USDA 179.5. Range is 175.7 to 180.0. Last year August farmer survey yield was 181 with final yield 172. Drop was linked to dry August. USDA increased US corn crop rating from 60 pct G/E to 62 pct and vs 71 last year. Highest rated crops are in OH, MI, KY, IL, WI and IN. Lowest rated crops are in ND, SD, MN and IA. Dalian corn futures ended lower after CNGOIC raised their China crop est 15 mmt. Trade is looking for USDA WOB to lower Brazil corn crop and raise US 2021/22 exports and lower US carryout. Average guess for the carryout is 1,297 versus USDA 1,432. Brazil CONAB est their corn crop at 86 mmt vs 93 previous and USDA 93. This week, most of the west Midwest should be dry. GFS has rain the second week especially IA. EU model is drier.
Wheat futures ended higher and closer to session high. Recent rally in US Dollar and concern over spread of new Covid variant virus was offering strong overhead resistance. Talk that US HRW fob prices are a premium to other sellers and that corn prices have dropped vs feed wheat lowering the feeding of wheat also offered resistance. Talk that US/Canada/Russia crops will be lower offers support. Todays higher close was linked to higher Russia prices. WU ended near 7.27 with range 7.08-7.30. Trade over 7.38 could suggest a test of 7.67. KWU ended near 7.14. Trade over 7.19 suggest a test of 7.45. Some feel drop in World exporters supply could suggest KC wheat could trade over 8.00 early in 2022. Since July 29, MWU has traded in a range between 9.00 and 9.28. Trade over 9.28 could suggest a test of 9.44. USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 11 pct G/E vs 10 last week and 69 last year. 38 pct of the crop is harvested vs 21 average. ND is rated 12 pct G/E with 24 pct of the crop harvested vs 15 average.
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