Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
by Steve Freed
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures traded lower. USDA announced that China bought 136 mt of US soybeans. USDA also announced 125 mt US soybean to Mexico. Favorable US Midwest 2 week weather offers resistance. US soybean plantings are est near 9 pct done. For the week, July soybean futures had a range near 8.18-8.56. Early weakness was linked in part to lower global protein demand and lack of new China buying US soybeans. Fact China has started to buy US soybeans and rumors they could buy 10 mmt offered support. Argentina soybean harvest is 56 pct done. Farmers have sold 19 mmt of crop verse 16 last year. Weak economic outlook has weighed on Brazil Real. This could encourage farmers there to increase production. Talk of lower US old crop soybean export demand and higher carryout could weigh on prices.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 corn. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 164,000 corn. USDA announced that Mexico bought 589 mt US corn. Favorable US Midwest 2 week weather offers resistance. US corn plantings are est near 24 pct done. Weak economic outlook has weighed on Brazil Real. This could encourage farmers there to increase production. Ukraine is considering limiting corn exports. For the week, July corn futures had a range of 3.09-3.31. Drop in demand for US corn weighed on prices. Prices bounced off key support and triggered a short covering rally. Talk of China buying 20 mmt of US corn offered support. US farmer did increase cash sales near the highs. Continued concern about US corn demand should offer resistance to corn futures. US cattle on feed report should show on feed near 95 pct and placements near 79 pct. This week, US announced $19 billion aid to farmers. $9.6 billion to livestock, $3.9 bil to crops, $2.6 bil to other crops and $3.0 fresh produce, Dairy and meat purchase for food banks.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Weak commodity price action and concern over impact virus will have on global economies and food demand offered resistance. For the week, July Chicago wheat futures were in a 5.33-5.61 range. Futures continue to consolidate awaiting weather across the north hemisphere. Higher EU wheat prices due to dryness there offered support. Today’s noon 2 week weather maps reduced rains for parts of north Europe and Russia. Mostly favorable US weather and slow export demand offers resistance. US winter wheat crop should be rated near 58 pct good/ex with rains this week in parts of KS and Ok helping crops there. Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 wheat. We estimate Managed funds to be net long 18,000 Chicago wheat. Without a weather problem and fact World wheat buyers may not be willing to pay an $85/bu premium for old crop EU/Black Sea wheat versus new crop could limit World export trade.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
