Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
April Fool’s Day. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is slightly lower on renewed demand concern. Gold is higher and supported by China buying. Meats were lower. April 2 new tariff reciprocal could be key to price volatility.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.11. USDA estimated US 2025 acres at 83.49 vs 87.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,910 mil bu vs 1,845 ly. USDA number were in line with trade estimates but futures sold the fact. Weekly US soybean exports were 29 mil bu with season to date exports 1,496 mil bu vs 1,361 ly. China was main exporter. Some could see US 2025 crop near 4,728 mil bu vs 4,366 this past year. 25/26 US end stocks could exceed 400 mil bu, Higher crush may not offset lower exports. Trade est US Feb soybean crush at 188,7 mil bu vs 193.4 ly. Brazil soybean basis continues to weaken on slower China demand. There is no clarity concerning US and China trade talks especially tax on China flag vessel into US ports.
CORN
CK is near 4.55. CK-CN spread is near -6 and supported by US export demand. CN-CZ also firm at +21. S/E Brazil forecast is dry. US Delta and SC Midwest forecast is wet. There is some new concern US south Midwest and SE corn acres could be planted later than normal. USDA estimated US farmers to plant 95.3 mil corn acres in 2025 vs 90.6 last year. Some now est US 25/26 corn carryout near 2,250 mil bu. USDA est US March 1 stocks near 8,151 mil bu vs 8,352 ly. US weekly corn exports were 63 mil bu with season to date exports 1,336 vs 1,020 ly. Domestic Brazil corn basis remain firm on higher ethanol production. USDA est MS corn planting 30 pct, AR 22, LA 81, TX 55.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.33. KWK is near 5.50. MWK is near 5.88. EU weather maps forecast Russia rains. US plains could remain dry. USDA rated KS crop 49 pct G/E, OK 33, TX 26, AR 63, IL 69. USDA est all US wheat acres at 45.35 vs 46.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,237 mil bu vs 1,089 ly..US weekly wheat exports were 16 mil bu with season to date exports at 635 vs 545 ly. Despite estimates of US 2025 wheat crop near 1,913 mil bu vs 1,971 last year, US 2025/26 wheat carryout could be near 843 mil bu. Higher carryin could offset lower imports and higher exports.
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