Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 3.24
May 3, 2024
ADMISI London Wheat Report for 27 June
- June 28, 2023
- ADMISI Grains Team
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London Wheat Report
Source: FutureSource
Lots of chatter and reaffirmations from the Kremlin and Russian state TV showing that Putin is most certainly in the driving seat and support is seen to be behind him. Very much risk off in outside markets, crude falling lower alongside the dollar. US stock indices rose today after an upbeat view on capital goods orders.
Well, the weather came in as forecasted last week with rains hitting the central corn belt which has also helped the crop conditions report from last night with US corn deteriorating 3% to 52% in comparison to market expectations of a 5% decrease to 50% GD/EX. Looking forward rains are also forecast over the next month looking outward which does alleviate the bullish climb. Attention is also coming toward carryout figures as on current terms, even with yield drop – carry out appears to be on parity to last year. Chicago corn fell back substantially in today’s trade with Sep-23 corn falling back to the 555 level at time of writing.
Wheat markets were very much on the tail of corn with Chicago wheat following corn lower, Chicago Sep-23 was trading down a whopping 39 cents at time of writing around the 699/700 levels. Rains have done similar to what they have done to corn with excitement calming down. Russian winter grains harvest is firing along well, currently standing at 1.5Mmt as of June 26th, up 66% Y-O-Y in comparison with 875,200t harvested during the same period last year. News out of Morocco is that they are offering subsidies on the imports of 2.5Mmt of wheat between July and Sept. EU weekly wheat exports total 171kt led by Poland.
European markets cooled off on the back of US markets falling back with Matif wheat trading lower, Sep-23 hit a low of the day of €235.75 before settling down €9.75 on yesterday at €236.50/t. Traded volumes were strong on Matif. London Nov-23 broke back down through the £200/t levels hitting a trading low of £198.05/t.
Soybeans also fell back, again on the weather news. Chicago Nov-23 was trading down 30 cents at time of writing. Brazil’s soybean exports are forecast to hit 97mmt according to the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries. Brazilian soybean exports have hit 11.4Mmt so far in June according to customs data. Matif rapeseed Aug-23 fell back lower, settling down €7.75 on yesterday at €434.25/t.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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