Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 3.24
May 3, 2024
ADMISI London Wheat Report for 22 June
- June 23, 2023
- ADMISI Grains Team
- Follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS
London Wheat Report
Source: FutureSource
Well BOE did a surprise hike as traders were correct in their standing that the bank would raise rates up to 5%, ahead of the Reuters poll and city consensus of 4.5%. This has now created quite a squeeze on the mortgage rates with 6% now apparent. Baily blames the unsustainable increases in pay alongside companies greed seeking to maintain profit margins even after feedstocks have decreased somewhat. Bit of a major headache really. US Fed has paused their rate rises but Turkey, Norway and Switzerland all raised rates. Brent crude was trading lower, $74.47/ba as recession fears grip the market.
Forecasts do not appear to be that exciting currently in the short run with temps heating up and corn reaching key pollination periods. Rains appear to be en route to the Midwest while the dry and hot seems to be moving further south in the US.
Wheat markets were calmer today after they hitched a ride on the back of soybeans and corn on their run yesterday. Chicago fell back slightly while Matif found some support after trading lower, spending the latter part of the afternoon trading up with Sept-23 jumping back through the €250 level. Ukraine are saying there is 99.9% certain chance that the grains corridor will not continue past 18th July – this gave Matif some support. How true this really is we shall have to wait and see. Russian wheat export pace are continuing with a reported 44Mmt exported this marketing year, up 49% Y-O-Y. Rouen exports in week ending 21st June sank to 64.5kt, down 3% on previous week. London saw trade across Nov-23, May-24 and Nov-24. Nov-23 saw a bit of yo-yo-ing either side of last night’s settlement.
Yesterday’s ethanol mandate announcements gave the market some excitement, even though the changes were nominal. Interestingly for one of the first times in recent years, Chicago soybean oil hit limit down which has not been seen. Expanded limits were in place on the CME. Euronext managed money has decreased rapeseed shorts by 13% while longs rose by 6%. Matif rapeseed was trading lower today with Nov-23 hitting a trading low of €444 before sitting around the €448 levels into the close.
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
Hanne Bell, Ryan Easterbrook, Dominic Enston and Aaron Stockley-Isted
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice. ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG. A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2023 ADM Investor Services International Limited3
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
