Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 25.24
April 25, 2024
ADMISI London Wheat Report for 20 September
- September 20, 2021
- ADMISI Grains Team
- Follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS
Source: Future Source
US ag markets turned bearish following global equity markets lower to begin the week after last week’s bull run. Global equity markets are moving lower following the Evergrande real estate debt bomb fiasco, with the bond interest payment miss today. This has had a ripple effect on global markets including Ags. In Friday’s CFTC report, funds are hanging on to length in corn 212,000, still long in fewer beans at 55,000 and short 6,000 in Chicago wheat. Wheat had the largest position change going from 5,167 long to -6,005 short. Last week, Chicago Dec-21 futures rose $9.01/t Friday to Thursday before dropping $1.57/t on Friday to close at $260.39/t. Chicago Dec-21 was trading down 8 cents and Kansas Dec-21 was down 11 cents at the time of writing. US crop conditions are due out later this evening with some further declines expected in corn and soybean which may offer support to wheat.
European ag markets also cooled, following the US. Matif Dec-21 wheat settled down 2 on the day at €245.75/t. London Nov-21 settled down £1.50/t on Friday at £188.80. Russian wheat prices continue to ruse, having risen for the 10th consecutive week last week following higher global benchmarks (Reuters). Russian 12.5% FOB October was $301/t, up $1 from the previous week according to IKAR. The wheat export tax is forecast to fall to $50.9 a tonne for Sept 22-29 from the current $52.50. The tax is still high and the price index on which is based remains lower than the actual FOB price. So far this year, it is reported that the Russian Government has earnt around $650m in tax revenue from the wheat export tax (Reuters) and domestic inflation continues. Pakistan has received offers for its 500,000t tender which closed on Monday, believed to be $383.50/t c&f. Pakistani State agency is still considering offers and no purchase as of yet has been reported.
European Rapeseed markets were on fire last week, with Paris Nov-21 rapeseed future gaining €30/t last week, closing Friday at €600.75/t, a new contract high on the back of the significantly reduced Canadian crop. UK delivered prices into Erith followed Paris, increasing £19.50/t to £519.50/t (Nov-21 Delivery Erith). Paris Nov-21 rapeseed settled down €1.50/t on Friday at €599.25/t.
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© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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