Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 3.24
May 3, 2024
ADMISI London Wheat Report for 2 October
- October 2, 2023
- ADMISI Grains Team
- Follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS
London Wheat Report
Happy Monday all! Conservative party conference kicks off in Manchester with a good old fashioned train strike scheduled for the UK on Wednesday. Trump trial kicks off in New York today. Brent crude is trading lower, trading at $90.87/ba at time of writing which is 1.41% down on Friday. Mixed start to the week on the grains markets. A lot of chatter in the US that wheat and corn have made a seasonal bottom on Friday and were oversold which has made them jump back in today’s trading. Plenty of Ukrainian wheat being offered cheap and the new export corridor continues to be working. This, in effect, after last week’s tender, has made Russian wheat prices drop below the supposed Kremlin instigated floor level according to market chatter. The price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late October-early November was $235 per metric ton last week, the same as the two previous weeks in a row, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported. European wheat markets had quite a flat day today with both Matif and London trading either side of unchanged. UK feed remains uncompetitive in the export market as continued European offers undercut. Matif Dec-23 was pushing lower his afternoon, sitting around the €234 level while London was very much trading unchanged. Ukrainian freedom corridor appears to be working. Three bulk carriers carrying 127kt of ags and iron ore left over the weekend and there are 5 new vessels coming in to load with grains. If this continues, there will be further pressure on grains markets. Ukraine’s total ag production has also been bumped up to 79.1Mmt according to the Ministry of Ag, 8% Y-O-Y. USDA announced 210kt of corn sold to Mexico for 23/24. Oilseeds were trading lower with Chicago soybeans trading marginally down. US weather appears dry to normal which again is bearish beans. Brazilian old crop continues to dominate the bean trade. Brazil’s soybean planting starts at the fastest pace on record according to AgRural with 5.2% completion rate. More chatter about Argentina extending the soy dollar scheme. Also a very interesting candidate leading in the polls currently which may cause some excitement over there next month at the elections. Strategie Grains raised its estimate of this year’s rapeseed harvest in the EU to 19.5Mmt from 18.9Mmt a month ago. Matif rapeseed was supported into the afternoon, with Nov-23 sitting around the €446/€447 level into the close. |
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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