Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 3.24
May 3, 2024
ADMISI London Wheat Report for 19 September
- September 19, 2023
- ADMISI Grains Team
- Follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS
London Wheat Report
Oil, oil, oil is the chatter today as brent hit over $95/ba, surging to a 10 month high with plenty of market predictions that it could reach $100/ba. Prices have surged by a quarter since mid-June as Saudi and Russia agreed to cut supplies until the end of the year. Not what the Western world want while inflation is still strong. Diesel prices are starting to rise too with railroad surcharges creeping up. Let’s see how this plays out and whether the Kremlin try and do something a little off piste as we go into the winter.
Well the Resilient Africa is moving through the Black Sea without hindrance currently, first shipment bound to Israel. Russian wheat crop reaches 84Mmt as 79% of area harvested by Sept 19th. EU weekly wheat exports at 190kt with YTD at 6.32Mmt, down 27% Y-O-Y. Ukrainian winter sowing ahead of last year by 2.7 percentage points. Chicago was pretty steady in today’s trade with Dec-23 sitting around the 587/588 levels for most of the afternoon, marginally down on yesterday. Matif wheat was also trading marginally down again a supply continues to weigh on the market, with Dec-23 settling down €1.25 on yesterday at €237.25/t.
Weekly USDA crop ratings. Soybean ratings were unchanged at 52% gd/ex. Poor/very poor for beans was also unchanged at 18%. Corn ratings declined 1% to 51% gd/ex. Harvest is a little slow with trade anticipating a larger portion harvested. Mixed forecast across the US this weekend may slow progress. European corn crops and Black Sea corn crops all looking good.
Oilseeds were mixed with Chicago soybeans trading unchanged while Matif rapeseed found support on the back of rising crude. With rising fuel prices, we can expect some support in this area in the near term, unless demand destruction comes around the corner, which there appears to be a lot of chatter toward on global economy. Matif Nov-23 rapeseed settled up €7.00 on yesterday at €440.25/t.
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
Hanne Bell, Ryan Easterbrook, Dominic Enston and Aaron Stockley-Isted
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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