Written Commentary
CPI Pressures Gold
November 10, 2026
USDA SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY
Report Highlights:
Sharply higher trade in both corn and soybeans fueled by lower-than-expected US production. USDA data for wheat was neutral to bearish however prices are higher drawing support for strength in corn and soybeans.
Corn:
- US production cut 141 mil. bu. to 15.893 bil., 70 mil. below expectations
- The Ave. US yield was cut 1.6 bpa to 179.6 bpa with no changes to harvested acres
- Yields were cut 10 bpa in MI, 8 in IL, 5 bpa in IN and MO while down 4 in NE. Yields rose 9 bpa in MN
- 2026/27 ending stocks were cut 91 mil. to 1.758 bil. 82 mil. below expectations
- 2026/27 usage was cut 50 mil. bu. with exports and feed usage both down 25 mil.
- The Ave. Farm Price was cut $.10 to $4.60 bu.
- Global stocks in 2026/27 up 1.5 to 282 mmt, in line with expectation
- Brazil’s 2025/26 production was increased 3.5 mmt, mostly offset by 3 mmt in domestic usage
- 2026/27 production was increased 2 mmt in both Argentina and Brazil
Soybeans:
- US production rose 12 mil. bu. to 4.574 bil., 23 mil. below expectations
- The Ave. US yield was increased .3 bpa to 53.3 bpa with no changes to harvested acres
- Yields were cut 4 bpa in IL and 3 bpa in KS. Yields rose 5 bpa in MN, 3 bpa in SD and NE while up 2 in IA
- 2026/27 ending stocks were cut 15 mil. to 300 mil. 30 mil. below expectations
- 2026/27 exports were increased 25 mil. bu.
- The Ave. Farm Price was increased $.10 to $12.10 bu.
- Global stocks in 2026/27 down nearly 1 mmt to 123.5 mmt, vs. expectations of no change
- South American production was left unchanged, Chinese imports unchanged
Wheat:
- US ending stocks rose 3 mil. bu. to 743 mil. in line with expectations
- HRW stocks increased 11 mil. bu. to 344 mil. while white wheat stocks fell 10 mil. to 70 mil.
- Global production increased 5 mmt to 827.5 mmt. Argentina and Australia both up 1.5 mmt
- Global stocks increased 5 mmt to 281 mmt, vs. expectations for a 1 mmt increase
- Russia and Ukraine exports cut another 1 mmt each to 39 and 11.5 mmt respectively
- Australian exports up 1 mmt while Argentina was up .5 mmt
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