Prices Little Changed Ahead of Export Sales

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Mixed trade across the Ag space this AM ahead of the weekly export sales data.  Prices are little changed as hopes for peace in the Black Sea, US harvest pressure and routine US demand limit the upside.  El Nino risk and oversold conditions limit further downside pressure for now.  Energy prices are higher, driven by a New York Times report that the Trump Administration and Isreal are planning to renew strikes on Iran after the US mid-term elections.  Dec-26 WTI crude oil is up $2.25 per barrel at $99.40 while holding within yesterday’s range.  Spot RBOB is up $.07 per gallon while HO is $.14 higher.  Dry across much of the nation’s midsection yesterday.  Weekend rains in the plains and portions of the WCB to stretch into the NC Midwest by early next week.  Much of the C. Midwest and ECB to remain dry enabling US harvest to get back on track.  Harvest delay will likely be limited to NE and SE SD.  Above normal temperatures look to hold across the Midwest into early November with above normal precipitation for much of the central Midwest in week 2 of the outlook.    Moderate to heavy rain for the interior south of Brazil with scattered activity for Argentina.  Below normal temperatures for Argentina and S. half of Brazil while warm in N. Brazil.  The US $$$ is little changed in 2-sided trade.  US stock indices are lower.

Corn: 

Dec-26 is $.01 ¾ higher at $4.65 after shrugging off sharply lower trade yesterday, rebounding after posting 6 consecutive lower closes.  We’ve got the money manager long position at 186k contracts.  Open interest was up just nearly 6k contracts.  Yesterday’s EIA data showed ethanol production increased to 322 mil. gallons, up from 313 mil. the previous week.  Corn usage at 15.34 mil. bu. per day was below the 15.57 needed to reach the USDA forecast.  Friday’s COF report is expected to show cattle inventories at 11.441 mil. head as of Oct. 1^st, slightly above 11.418 mil. YA.  Placements are expected to be down 8.3% while marketing off 7.3%.  Export sales are expected to range from 28-60 mil. bu.  For prices to form a meaningful bounce, we’ll need to see improved demand and/or a more threatening forecast in SA.  Brazil corn shipments to Europe surged to 1.65 mmt in Oct-26, up from only 200k tons in Oct-25.  SovEcon slashed Ukraine’s corn exports another 18% to 17.2 mmt, vs. the USDA est. at 22 mmt.  The Rosario Grain Exchange held their 2026/27 Argentine corn production forecast steady at 67.5 mmt vs. the USDA at only 55 mmt.

Soybeans: 

Nov-26 beans are $.02 ¼ higher at $12.47 ½ while holding within yesterday range, looking to avoid a 9th consecutive lower close.  Support below the market is at $12.28.  Dec-26 meal is steady at $348 while Dec-26 oil is up 35 points at 66.33, both holding within yesterday’s range.  Crush margins are little changed at $2.47 ½ bu.  Soybean O.I. plunged nearly 17k contracts yesterday, meal was down 5.6k while oil was up just over 4k contracts.  Flash sales this week have likely taken Chinese purchases to around 17.5 mmt.  China’s Sinograin will auction off another 512k mt of soybeans from Govt. reserved next Tues. the 27^th.  I believe the USDA export forecast at 1.695 bil. bu. (46.1 mmt) will prove to be too low.  US Gulf FOB offers holding $.20-$.40 below Brazilian offers into the end of the year.  US harvest likely reaching 80%+ by the end of this weekend.  Export sales are expected to range from 65-110 mil. bu. of beans, 250-650k tons of meal with oil between 0-10k tons.  The RGE held their 2026/27 Argentine soybean production forecast steady at 47.8 mmt vs. the USDA at 50 mmt.

Wheat: 

Prices are steady to $.02 lower with all 3 classes holding within yesterday’s range.  CGO Dec-26 is steady at $6.28 ¼, Dec-26 KC is also steady at $6.73 while Dec-26 MIAX is down $.01 ½ at $6.50.  We’ve got the MM short position in CGO wheat back up to 49k contracts, the largest in 3 months.  O.I. in CGO was up nearly 10k contracts yesterday while up only 500 in KC.  Trilateral talks between US, Russia and Ukraine are slated for Nov. 10^th, meanwhile the fighting continues.  SovEcon cut Ukraine’s wheat export forecast another 7.7% to 14.4 mmt vs. the USDA est. already down to 12.5 mmt.  Ukraine’s exports July through Sept at 3.8 mmt is the lowest in 15 years.  IKAR see’s Russian exports reaching 3 mmt in both Oct. and Nov. after reaching 2.5 mmt in Sept.  The RGE raised their 2026/27 Argentine production forecast 13% to 23.8 mmt vs. the USDA est. at 21.5 mmt.

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