Quiet Trade Awaits Soybean Crush Data

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Mixed and quiet trade across the Ag space this AM as we await US ethanol production and soybean crush data along with production updates for Brazilian corn and soybean crops.  Energy prices are mixed with spot WTI crude oil up $.30 per barrel at $95.40, spot RBOB is down $.06 per gallon while HO is off $.12.  Rain continues to pull from the Plains and WCB across the Midwest.  Heaviest totals in the past 24 hours were in C. OK and southern portions of the ECB.  Rains to favor the S. Plains and Great Lakes region over the next 5-7 days.  Dryer conditions for the N. Plains and SE.  Week 2 of the outlook shows above normal temperatures across the Midwest with above normal precipitation for the WCB and plain states.  Below normal temperatures for Argentina and most of Brazil over the next week.  Scattered showers in Brazil with heaviest amounts favoring the EC region while dryer in the deep South in RGDS.   The US $$ is sharply lower after surging to an 18-month high yesterday following a hotter than expected CPI report.  Today’s PPI data is expected to show producer prices rose .6% in Sept-26 up from +.4% in Aug-26 while up 5.5% YOY.  US stock indices range from up .2% on the DJIA to down 1.2% in the Nasdaq.

Corn: 

Dec-26 is $.00 ½ higher at $4.81 ¼ in 2-sided trade overnight.  The overnight low at $4.78 has matched the low from the past 2 sessions.  EIA data is expected to show ethanol production rebounded to 317 mil. gallons last week, up from 310 mil. the previous week.  Conab is expected to trim their Brazilian 2026/27 production forecast by nearly 1 mmt to 147.2 mmt due to slightly lower acres.  The USDA forecast is much lower at 139 mmt.  Export sales are delayed until tomorrow.

Soybeans: 

Nov-26 beans are $.03 ¼ lower at $12.74 while trading to a 7-week lower overnight.  Dec-26 meal is up $3.00 at $367.50, holding just below this week high at $369.10.  Dec-26 oil is down 46 points at 66.60, also trading to a 7-week low.  Crush margins are up $.05 at $2.67 ½ bu. with meal PV reaching a 9-month high at 52.5%.  Open interest from yesterday’s trade was down 5.9k contracts in soybeans, 3.65k in soybean meal while up 3.55k in oil.  The Ave. estimate for Conab’s Brazilian production forecast is 181.6 mmt, up from 181 the previous month, well below the USDA forecast of 186 mmt.  NOPA members are expected to have processed 203.7 mil. bu. of soybeans in Sept-26, down from 205.5 mil. in Aug-26, however up from 197.9 mil. in Sept-25.  If realized this would be the lowest amount of soybeans crushed in 12 months as processors took extended down time for maintenance and in some cases due to the lack of soybeans driven by harvest delays.  Oil stocks are expected to slip to 1.116 bil. lbs., down from 1.201 in Aug-26 and below the 1.243 bil. in Sept-25.  NOPA figures are due out at 11 AM CST.

Wheat: 

Prices are steady to $.02 higher in 2-sided trade across all 3 classes.  CGO Dec-26 is up $.00 ¾ at $6.74 as it bumps up against its 100-day MA resistance at $6.75 ¾.  Dec-26 KC is $.00 ½ higher at $7.15 ½ while Dec-26 MIAX is $.01 ½ higher at $6.91 ½.  Look for drought conditions across US winter wheat growing areas to continue to ease.  So far US is just a bystander as limited supplies from Black Sea region are getting distributed to other global exporters.  Wheat offers from ports in Romania and Bulgaria have jumped to 3-year highs as Russian drone attacks have damage or sunk vessels in their coastal waters.  Russia claims that they can fully cover Egypt’s demand for grain despite the blockage of the Black Sea supply routes.

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