Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 10.13.26
October 13, 2026
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil was lower early Tuesday but was inside the upper half of Monday’s range. The escalation of violence in the Middle East over the past week has undercut ideas that Iran and the Houthi’s ability to interrupt Mideast oil exports had been marginalized President Trump’s announcement of an energy cease-fire between Russian and Ukraine over the weekend has been undermined by reports of Russian attacks that the Ukrainian president claimed had hit six energy targets. The recovery in Mideast flows has contributed to increased shipping costs, as more vessels are tied up in the ship-to-ship transfers in the Persian Gulf. Reuters reported that costs for a supertanker from the US Gulf Coast to Europe were estimated to be at the equivalent of $24.50 per barrel last week versus $4/barrel before the start of the Iran war.
PRODUCTS
Recent reports of a recovery in Asian refinery output and exports have been undermined by the latest increase in hostilities in the Mideast and the Ukraine war. Traders view Russia’s ability to boost exports with skepticism.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas was near unchanged early Tuesday, as it continued to consolidate its gains from earlier this month. The drop in US production this month marks a significant change from recent trends and is likely the primary supportive factor for prices. LSEG estimates average gas output in the US Lower 48 states at 110.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from a record 113.3 bcfd in September. Output was on track to drop to a four-month low of around 108.9 bcfd on Monday due in part to shutdowns at offshore drilling facilities in the Gulf from Hurricane Isais, but keep in mind that the Gulf only represents about 2% of US production. Seasonally colder weather is coming, which should eventually boost demand. However, temperatures have been trending above normal, and if this continues, heating demand will lag other years. El Nino has a tendency to bring mild winters to the US.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Escalation of Violence in The Middle East
October 13, 2026
Tech Weakness in Asia Spills Over
October 13, 2026
