Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Sept 11.2026
September 11, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.05 lower while spreads were steady. Early weakness saw Dec-26 trade down to a 3-week low while trading $.10 higher shortly after the USDA release. Unless we see a surprise purchase by China ahead of Xi visit in 2 weeks, I suspect corn could see additional speculative pressure as money managers hold a record long position right ahead of US harvest. History shows that since 1990 the USDA lowered US corn yields in Aug. and Sept (like this year) 10 times. Oddly enough final yields were above the Sept forecast in 8 of those years while lower only twice.
- 2025/26 stocks down 22 mil. bu. to 1.922 bil. on higher exports, in line with expectations
- 2026 production cut 213 mil. bu. to 15.80 bil. vs. expectations of 15.785 bil.
- Harvested acres were down 86k to 88.506 mil. while Ave. yield cut 2.2 bpa to 178.5
- Yields rose 18 bpa in TN, while up 2 in IA. Down 12 bpa in ND, 6 in NE, SD and IN
- 2026/27 stocks were lowered 86 mil. to 1.567 bil., 40 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 Ave. Farm Price up $.30 bu. to $4.80
- Global stocks cut 2.5 mmt to 272, slightly above expectations
- Brazil’s 2025/26 production raised another 1 mmt to 141 mmt
- Brazil’s 2026/27 exports cut 1 mmt while usage for ethanol up 2 mmt
SOYBEANS
Beans were down $.30-$.36 bu, meal was off $4 while bean oil was down over $.02 lbs. With a surprise increase in production and yields speculators were actively shedding length in the soybean complex, perhaps sensing further production increases in future reports. Since 1990 the USDA lowered US soybean yields in Aug. then raised them in Sept (like this year) 7 times. In those years, final yields were above the Sept forecast 5 times, while lower only twice. That said, I look for good support to in the $12.50-$12.75 area basis Nov-26 futures.
- 2025/26 stocks unchanged at 325 mil. bu. vs. expectations of 317 mil.
- 2026 production was raised 16 mil. bu. to 4.535 bil. vs. expectations of 4.50 bil.
- Harvested acres were down 100k to 88.881 mil. while Ave. yield was raised .1 bpa to 52.8
- Yields rose 6 bpa in LA, 3 in KY and NE, up 2 in IA
- Yield fell 4 bpa in ND, 3 in KS and down 2 in MS and MI
- 2026/27 stocks were lowered 10 mil. to 310 mil., 10 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 Ave. Farm Price up $.60 bu. to $12.00
- Global stocks were little changed at 124 mmt
- No changes to South American production or Chinese imports
WHEAT
Prices were down $.16-$.20 across the 3 classes. KC Dec-26 closed back below $8.00 for the first time in 3 weeks. Higher global stocks tilted markets lower today. Prices will remain sensitive to logistical disruptions and potential peace talks (or lack thereof) in the Black Sea region. US production updates on Sept. 30th.
- 2026/27 stocks unchanged at 717 mil. bu. in line with expectations
- HRW stocks were up 15 mil, SRW up 5 mil. white wheat down 20, all on export changes
- US Farm Price up $.20 to $6.40 bu.
- World stocks were 3 mmt to 276 mmt vs expectations for no change
- Australian production up 3 mmt , Canada up 1 mmt, Argentina up .5 mmt, Ukraine up .6 mmt
- Russian exports down 3 mmt, Ukraine down 1 mmt nearly offset by Canada and Australia both up 1.5 mmt
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