Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Sept 3.2026
September 3, 2026
CORN
Prices were steady to $.03 lower, closing well off session lows. Spreads weakened. Dec-26 futures rejected trade into new lows for the week. We estimate MM’s held a record large, long position at 491k contracts at yesterday’s close. O.I. increased 13k contracts in yesterday’s trade with the Dec-26 O.I. above 1 mil. contracts for only the 2nd time in history. IMEA forecasts the 2nd crop corn in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest producing state, would fall to 53.7 mmt in 2026/27, down 7.5% from YA as El Nino is likely to reduce yields. Allendale is forecasting US production at 15.83 bil. bu. with an average yield of 178.7 bpa, down 180 mil. bu. from the USDA forecast in August. Linn and Associates is forecasting production at 15.768 bil. Weekly exports at 46 mil. bu. (-33 mil. – 25/26 MY, 79 – 26/27) were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments slipped to 3.422 bil. bu. still up 24% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of up 18%. New crop commitments have reached 569 mil. bu. 31% below YA. Mexico was the most noted buyer at 26 mil. bu. Official census data from July showed exports at 294 mil. bu. up 20% YOY. Cumulative sales through the first 11 months of the 25/26 MY at 3.131 bil. bu. requires sales in Aug-26 to reach 269 mil. bu. vs. 252 mil. YA.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex recovered to close mostly higher. Beans were up $.04-$.06, meal was $5-$6 higher while oil was off $.01 lb. Nov-26 beans rejected trade below $13.00. Oct-26 meal rejected trade below yesterday’s low while closing into a fresh 2-year high. Oct-26 oil recovered to close above its 50 and 100-day MA support. Early weakness was a result of sharply lower wheat prices after Russian Pres. Putin indicated there is a chance for a peace agreement to end the war with Ukraine, something that he rejected as recently as last month. Allendale is forecasting US production at 4.515 bil. bu. with an average yield of 52.6 bpa, down only 4 mil. from the USDA forecast in August. Linn and Associates sees production at 4.459 bil. with a yield of 52 bpa. Poor finishing weather in the US combined with Chinese demand will likely limit a correction to the $12.50-$12.75 range basis Nov-26 futures. Soybean sales at 68 mil. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments slipped to 1.538 bil. bu. down 18% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 20%. Chinese new crop purchases at 972k mt take commitments to 7.761 mmt. There are another 5.54 mmt to unknown. I’d estimate 50-60% of the unknown sales are China. With additional flash sales, China’s purchases likely sit around 11.5-12 mmt and will likely be more than halfway to their 25 mmt pledge ahead of Xi visit to Washington in 3 weeks. The USDA announced another 192k mt flash sale to China this AM. Total new crop sales have reached 598 mil. bu., a 4-year high while up 102% YOY. Meal sales at 731k tons were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are up 15% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of up 13%. Official census data from July showed bean exports at 69 mil. bu. up 8% YOY. Cumulative sales for the 25/26 MY at 1.481 bil. bu. require Aug-26 sales to reach only 39 mil. bu. vs. 84 mil. YA.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.16 to $.20 lower. CGO Dec-26 was down $.19 ¾ at $7.54 ¼, KC Dec-26 was $.18 ¾ lower at $8.15 ½ while Dec-26 MIAX was down $.16 ½ at $7.65 ½. The rebound off session lows would suggest the market isn’t very confident Putin is serious about ending the war anytime soon. Asian importers have been forced to turn to Australia and Argentina to replace delayed cargoes from the Black Sea, often paying $50/mt CF more. Germany’s Ag. Ministry estimates all wheat production will only reach 20.8 mmt, down 10% YOY. Wire services are reporting Saudi Arabia issued a tender for 535k mt of wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. Export sales at 11 mil. bu. were below expectations. Commitments at 315 mil. are down 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. Commitments represent 41% of the USDA forecast, vs. the historical average of 47%.
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