ADMIS News
US-Iran Clashes Boost Dollar Again
September 2, 2026
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower early Wednesday following a disappointing close on Tuesday after the market failed to extend Monday’s mover higher. The market has recently rallied off concerns El Nino will lower production in 2026/27, but comments from the Mondelez chief cocoa officer that cocoa stockpiles were ample enough to cushion any hit to global production was apparently enough to ease some of those concerns. World Weather Inc. said a large part of western and central Ghana received light to moderate rain Monday but rain in Ivory Coast the rain was mostly north of major production areas. West Africa is expect to see daily rainfall events through the next week, but for the most part it will tend to be on the light side. However, the region will not be critically dry. More active rainfall will be needed eventually.
COTTON
December Cotton was sharply lower early Wednesday, as recent longs have apparently become unnerved by the market’s failure to extend its rally this week. The fact that US crop conditions improved modestly may have also raised worries that the focus on the poor condition of the US crop had played itself out in the market. The recent Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net long 207,082 contracts, their highest since September 2023, and this has left the market vulnerable to heavy selling as support levels are taken out. The dollar has been trending higher over the past couple of weeks, which raises concerns about US export prospects.
COFFEE
December Coffee was lower early Wednesday and was approaching Tuesday’s five-week lows. Previous worries about lower than expected output in Brazil have abated over the past week, ever since Cecafe fixed a glitch in their website that had been underreporting estimated exports. The arabica harvest, which was delayed by heavy rains in June and July, is nearing completion. There are still concerns about quality, and ICE exchange stocks remain very low. ICE certified arabica stocks fell 65 bags on Tuesday to 223,976, which the lowest they have been since February 1999. Rabobank has lowered its forecast for the global surplus for 2026/27 to 8.9 million bags from a 9.5 million in June. The surplus for 2025/26 was revised up by 1.2 million bags to 3.4 million on stronger robusta production in Vietnam. Vietnam’s Statistics Office said the nation exported 1.31 million metric tons of coffee in the first seven months of 2026, up 21.1% from the same period last year. In July they exported 396,000 tons, almost three times last year’s levels. World Weather Inc. says periodic, light, showers may induce some local flowering in the coming ten days in Brazil, but a generalized flowering of the 2027 crop is not very likely without widespread rain of greater intensity. Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact various parts of Vietnam coffee areas during the next week. The Central Highlands should get some of the greatest rainfall, which will help maintain a good environment for short term crop development. Indonesia continues to be too dry due to El Nino. El Nino could eventually affect Vietnam, but so far conditions have been good. The “Super El Nino” may not translate to as poor conditions as advertised.
SUGAR
October Sugar was mixed early Wednesday following a rally on Tuesday that took it back to the vicinity of lasty week’s 27-month high. In their first detailed forecast for 2026/27, the International Sugar Organization is calling for a global sugar deficit of 200,000 metric tons. Production outside Brazil was expected to fall by around 4.4 million tons, with decreases in the European Union, Thailand and Central America. However, they are also calling for a larger sugar mix in Brazil in 2027, following the recent rally in prices. Consumption growth of 0.5% was projected. They lowered their estimate for the 2025/6 surplus to 1.1 million tons from 2.2 million in their May update. There has been no word of an update from UNICA on Brazilian production for July or August.
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