Written Commentary
US-Iran Clashes Boost Dollar Again
September 2, 2026
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Lower trade across the Ag space this AM as prices back off from their recent surge. The CFTC-COT data on Friday will likely show record length by Money managers in corn and possibly soybeans. Usage data after yesterday close was in line with market expectations. Energy prices have turned mixed after stretching out to fresh contract highs overnight. Oct-26 WTI crude is down $1.00 a barrel at 89.20 while RBOB is steady with HO down $.10 per gallon. Storms riding up and around the high pressure ridged parked across the nation’s midsection produced healthy rains from southeast SD across N. IA, S. MN into cental WI. Rains will continue to favor the N. Midwest and Great Lakes region with the central and southern Midwest remaining hot/dry, pushing crops toward maturity to the detriment of yield. Normal to below normal temperatures for S. Brazil and Argentina the next 7 days. Above normal temperatures across central and northern growing regions of Brazil. Scattered rains for the interior south of Brazil while dry elsewhere. Central and W. Europe returns to a hot/dry pattern while drought in S. Ukraine deepens. The US $$ is moderately higher while stetching out to a 3 week high. US equity markets are steady to lower.
Corn:
Dec-26 futures are $.08 ½ lower at $5.37 ½ after carving out a new contract high overnight for a 4th consecutive session. We estimate MM’s are holding a record large, long position at 481k contracts. O.I. increased 20k contracts in yesterday’s trade. Corn used for ethanol production in July-26 reached 475 mil bu up 3.7% YOY. Through 11 months in the 25/26 MY, corn usage has reached 5.068 bil bu., up 1.8% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 2.1%. To reach the USDA forecast of 5.550 bil. bu. usage in Aug-26 needs to reach 482 mil. bu. vs. 463 mil. YA. Best guess the USDA forecast is 5-10 mil bu too high. EPA data later this AM is expected to show last week’s ethanol production holding near the previous week’s level of 327 mil. gallons. Prices are overbought and likely due for a correction. I look for Dec-26 to hold support above $5.25. USDA Sec. Rollins yesterday announced they would modernize their data collection techniques to include satellite imagery and AI to improve crop production estimates.
Soybeans:
Nov-26 beans are $.14 lower at $13.04, this after trading to a new contract high for a 6th consecutive session. Oct-26 meal is down $5 at $340.70 in 2-sided trade. Oct-26 oil is down 50 points at 71.95. Crush margins are little changed at $2.42 bu. We’ve got the combined long position in the soybean complex at just over 500k contracts, very close to the all-time high from May-26 at nearly 502k. Census crush in July-26 at 222 mil. bu. was slightly above expectations while bringing YTD crush to 2.436 mil. bu. up 8.4% YOY, in line with the USDA est. To reach the USDA forecast of 2.655 bil., crush in Aug-26 will need to reach 219 mil. bu. vs. only 198 mil. YA. Bean oil stocks slipped to 1.963 bil. lbs. however was above expectations of 1.878 bil. Combine biodiesel and RD production in June at 515 mil. gallons was a new all-time high, up from 497 mil. gallons in May. Soybean oil usage also reached a new all-time monthly high at 1.556 bil lbs. To reach the USDA forecast of 14.7 bil lbs. for the 25/26 MY, usage over the last 3 months of the MY will need to reach 1.457 bil lbs month. Poor US finishing weather combined with Chinese buying will likely limit a correction to the $12.50-$12.75 range basis Nov-26 futures until we know more on US 2026 production.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.07 to $.16 lower. CGO Dec-26 is down $.11 at $7.71 ½, KC Dec-26 is $.15 ½ lower at $8.30 while Dec-26 MIAX is $.07 lower at $7.70. EU soft wheat exports as of Aug. 30th at 4.16 mmt are down 3.7% YOY. Russia’s Economy Ministry announced they would pause export duties on grain shipments through the end of 2026. Russian missile strikes targeted the port city of Odesa overnight, damaging infrastructure along with a residential building. Ukraine’s food exports fell to 2.15 mmt in August, down 41.5% from June, while grain exports at 774k mt were down 67%. Ukraine’s largest farmer’s union stated they need to prepare for deep water ports to be closed until at least early 2027.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
