Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Aug 24.2026
August 24, 2026
CORN
Prices were up $.06-$.08 while spreads also firmed. Dec-26 traded to a new contract high while Sept-26 reached a 2 ½ year high. Next resistance for Sept-26 is $5.04 ½, the Feb-25 high on the weekly chart. PF forecasts this year’s US crop at only 15.344 bil. bu., 669 mil. bu. below the Aug-26 USDA forecast. Their Ave. yield at 173.2 bpa, if realized would be the lowest in 6 years and well below the USDA 180.7 est. While the market was trading production below the USDA est. at just over 16 bil. bu., IMO a USDA print this low would likely drive prices above $5.75 to ration demand. Cattle inventories in feedlots as of Aug. 1st at 11.117 mil. head were up 2% from YA and slightly below expectations. Placements at only 89% of YA were below expectations of 93.5% while marketings at 93% were in line with expectations. The CFTC reported the MM long position swelled to just over 250k as of last Tuesday, likely closer to 300k at Friday’s close. Index funds were also net buyers of nearly 34k contracts. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest has reached 92%, still lagging the 98% pace from YA, however starting to hit the home stretch.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply mixed with beans down $.09-$.16, meal was up $2-$3 while bean oil was down more than $.02 lb. Sept-26 meal traded to a 4-week high before pulling back while Sept-26 oil plunged to a 7-week low. Crush margins continue to get pounded, down another $.30 to $2.27 bu., a fresh 5-month low, while bean oil PV slipped to 51.2%. Reports the EPA will extend the compliance deadline for biodiesel and RD manufacturers to comply with the RFS by 30-90 days has weighed on D4 RIN values, weighing on producer profit margins. Pro Farmer’s production forecast at 4.572 bil. bu., 53 mil. above the USDA est. was bearish. Their yield forecast at 53.3 bpa would be a new record high compared to the USDA est. of 52.7 bpa. Production this large would provide some cushion against tighter stocks on improved demand. China continues to stack up US soybean purchases ahead of Chinese leader Xi visit to Washington DC next month. Confirmed purchases to date along with announced flash sales are just over 6.5 mmt while another 4.7 mmt are to unknown. Potential Trump Admin. demands for China to stop buying Iranian crude oil may complicate the completion of the 25 mmt of US soybeans China has committed to making.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from steady to $.06 lower in choppy 2-sided trade. While Russian Pres. Putin rejected Ukrainian Pres. Zelensky’s truce offer on Black Sea shipping, the fact they are communicating offers hope for a “diplomatic track” to solving the logistical issues preventing Black Sea grain from reaching global buyers. CGO Sept-26 was up $.00 ¼ at $6.81 ¾, KC Sept-26 was $.05 ¾ lower at $7.50 ½, while spot MIAX was down $.04 ½ at $6.93 ¾. IKAR reports Russia’s export price for wheat ended last week at $210/mt, down $5 from the previous week while SovEcon reports prices between $213-$215/mt. Russian prices are at a record discount to FOB Baltic due to surging insurance and freight costs for Russian grain.
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