Written Commentary
Product Prices Following Crude Lower
August 24, 2026
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Sharply mixed trade across the Ag space overnight with corn the upside leader with soybean oil the leader to the downside. A much lower than expected corn production estimate from Pro Farmer after Friday’s close fueled gap higher trade into new contract highs while a higher than expected soybean production forecast along with lower energy prices has weighed on soybean oil. Energy prices have softened as US Treasurey Sec. Bessent is expected to lay out a new package of economic sanctions against Iran in an attempt to force the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz. Spot WTI crude is down $1.70 per barrel at $85.36. Spot RBOB is down $.07 per gallon while HO is $.12 lower. Scattered weekend rains across the US Midwest were as expected while 100+ degree temperatures were restricted to the far S. plains. Week 2 of the outlook features normal to above normal temperatures with normal precipitation for the nation’s midsection while dry in the Great Lakes region. Rains in SA limited to the interior south of Brazil with normal to above normal temperatures. Rains in C. Europe will bring some drought reliff while temperatures remain above normal. The US $$ is moderately higher while US stock indices are lower.
Corn:
Sept-26 is $12 ½ higher at $4.96 ¼ while Dec-26 is up $.13 ½ at $5.22. New contract high for Dec-26 and a 2 ½ year high for Sept-26. Next resistance for Sept-26 is $5.04 ½, the Feb-25 high on the weekly chart. PF forecasts this year’s crop at only 15.344 bil. bu., 669 mil. bu. below the Aug-26 USDA forecast. Their Ave. yield at 173.2 bpa, if realized would be the lowest in 6 years and well below the USDA 180.7 est. While the market was clearly trading production below the USDA est. at just over 16 bil. bu., I think a USDA print this low would likely drive prices above $5.50 bu. to ration demand. Cattle inventories in feedlots as of Aug. 1st at 11.117 mil. head were up 2% from YA and slightly below expectations. Placements at only 89% of YA were below expectations of 93.5% while marketings at 93% were in line with expectations. The CFTC reported the MM long position swelled to just over 250k as of last Tuesday, likely closer to 300k at Friday’s close. I look for US crop ratings to slip another 1% to 59% G/E.
Soybeans:
Sept-26 beans are down $.03 ½ at $12.21 ½ while Nov-26 is $.05 ½ lower at $12.34. Sept-26 meal is up $1.10 at $318.80 while Sept-26 oil is down 187 points at 67.48. Also weighing on bean oil are reports the EPA will announce small refinery exemptions (SRE) for 2026 before Sept. 1st that may include a compliance extension of 30 to 90 days. D4 RIN’s fell as a result, weighing on biodiesel and RD profit margins. The Pro Farmer production forecast is viewed as bearish with production at 4.572 bil. bu. 53 mil. bu. above the USDA est. Their yield forecast at 53.3 bpa would be a new record high compared to the USDA est. of 52.7 bpa. Production this large would provide some cushion against tighter stocks due to improved demand. China continues to stack up US soybean purchases ahead of Chinese leader Xi visit to Washington DC in just over a month. Purchases to date along with announced flash sales are just over 6.5 mmt while another 4.7 mmt to unknown. The US balance sheet has little wiggle room for US yields to slip from the current USDA est. of 52.7 bpa. Through Friday’s close, I’d estimate the MM long position across the soybean complex has swelled to nearly 350k contracts, vs. the record of 502k from this past May. I look for crop ratings to slip another 1% to 60% G/E.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.08-$.14 higher as Russian Pres. Putin rejected Ukrainian Pres. Zelensky’s truce offer on Black Sea shipping. CGO Sept-26 is up $.13 ½ to $6.95 while trading to a 1-month high. Resistance is at $7.11 ¼. KC Sept-26 is $.11 higher at $7.67 ¼ with resistance at its contract high of $7.77 ½. Spot MIAX is up $.07 at $7.05. APK Inform reports Ukrainian grain exports in the week ended Aug. 19th reached only 188.2k mt down 11.5% from the previous week. Russia raised their wheat export tax 40% to 1,012 roubles/mt. I look for spring wheat ratings to slip 1% to 51% G/E with harvest advancing to 55%.
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