ADMIS News
Buybacks, Fed Minutes
August 20, 2026
SUGAR
October Sugar extended its Wednesday’s big rally early Thursday. An Indian publication reported that their government may import 1 million metric tons of raw sugar at zero duty as they attempt to ease record domestic prices. The last time India allowed the import of raw sugar was during the 2016/17 season. India’s decision to import raw sugar only compounds the tightening global supply outlook that has been driven by crop beet problems in Europe due to heat and drought, a drop in Brazilian production due to too much rain in June, and the threat of drier conditions brought on by El Nino will also hurt Thailand’s prospects. Brazil may see some of its cane crush moved into the next crop year due to the delays. Higher energy costs also encourage crushes to focus more on ethanol, but that trend is offset by the sharply higher sugar prices. World Weather Inc. said western Europe could see some partial relief in the coming week with cooler temperatures and a few showers, but the relief will be too late in the summer to significantly change production potentials. The recent Commitments of Traders report showed managed money traders moved to a net long for the first time since May 2025 last week indicating a growing interest on the part of the funds.
COCOA
December Cocoa turned higher Thursday after bouncing off 21-day moving average support earlier in the session. The market has been in a consolidation mode over the past six weeks, but the uptrend is intact. A lot rides on whether or how much El Nino will hurt the upcoming, 2026/27 crop. On Wednesday, Hedgepoint said it was forecasting a global surplus of 111,000 metric tons in 2026/27 versus 325,000 in 2025/26. They are looking for a 2% drop in production and a 2.5% increase in grind. This would follow a 58,000-ton deficit in 2024/25. World Weather said beneficial rain fell on much of Ghana Tuesday and some of that rain was expected to shift into Ivory Coast. More is expected Friday and Saturday. There has also been mention of too much rain in Ghana causing potential problems with disease. ICE warehouse stocks fell 1,645 bags on Wednesday to 3.348 million. Stocks have declined in six out of the last eight sessions, but they are up 12,479 from a week ago.
COFFEE
December Coffee was a bit lower early Thursday after trading to its highest level since July 6 on Wednesday and closing a gap from July 7. Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe said on Wednesday that its farmers had harvested 81.1% of their 2026 crop as of August 14, up from 74.6% a week earlier, but behind year-ago levels at 86.1%. Last week, Safras & Mercado reported last week that Brazil had completed 86% of expected arabica production versus 95% at this point last year. World Weather Inc does not seen much chance any rain in Brazil until the middle of next week, which should be beneficial for harvest. At this point Indonesia seems to be the most affected by El Nino, with World Weather Inc reporting very dry conditions and little change expected for the next several weeks. This brings the threat of heat an wildfires.
COTTON
December Cotton was modestly lower early Thursday after trading to a contract high on Wednesday. Declining crop conditions due to heat and drought key US growing areas have been the primary driver of the rally, though the market also be befitted from a sharply lower dollar on Wednesday in the wake of the US Treasury announcing it would buy back long-term bonds after rates soared on concerns about the size of the US debt. The weaker dollar is viewed as beneficial to US export prospects, as it make US cotton cheaper on the global market. As they have been pointing out for weeks, World Weather Inc. says dryland crops in West Texas have been deteriorating recently and the trend will continue for the next ten days. The Delta is also unlikely to see much rain, which will lead to some increase in crop moisture stress. Some relief from the worst conditions is expected late this week and into the weekend in the Delta, but Texas cropland will continue quite stressed by the heat and dryness. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas are in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. The trade will be looking at export sales this morning
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