Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 29.2026
July 29, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.08-$.10 lower closing near session lows while spreads also weakened. Both Sept-26 and Dec-26 traded into new lows for the week. Argentina exported 35.8 mmt of grain in the first 6 months of 2026, up 19% YOY and 34% above their 5-year Ave. Corn shipments totaled 19.1 mmt. Speculative buying yesterday pushed the MM long position back up to 120k contracts, O.I. however was down 2k contracts. Speculators were active sellers today. Ethanol production rebounded to 330 mil. gallons, up from 322 mil. the previous week and up 2.5% YOY. Production was above expectations and above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage est. for the first time in 15 weeks. There was 110 mil. bu. of corn used, or 15.75 mil. bu. per day, above the 15.6 mbd needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.550 bil. bu. Stocks rose to 24.7 mil. barrels, above expectations, however in line the YA. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 25-60 mil. bu. for both MY’s combined.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply lower today with soybeans down $.24-$.34, meal was $3-$5 lower while oil has plunged $.01 ½ lb. Nearby spreads across the complex weakened ahead of FND for the Aug-26 contracts on Friday. Bean and oil spreads weakened for old and new crop contracts while meal spreads were mixed. Aug-26 beans settled very near its 100-day MA at $11.77 ½. Nov-26 beans finished filling its chart gap from early LW while slipping back below $12.00. Aug-26 meal fell to a 3-week low while Aug-26 oil violated support at its 100-day MA. Crush margins did rebound $.05 ½ to $2.76 ½ bu. while bean oil PV slipped to 52.3%. Agricultural prices shook off higher trade in the energy markets. Overnight, US military forces intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles targeting US troops in Jordan. In response the US and Saudi Arabia renewed strikes on Iranian targets. Pres. Trump stated that the US will be hitting Iran hard in response to these surprise attacks. China’s Sinograin is expected to auction off 500k mt of soybeans on Friday to free up space for incoming US beans. While the soybean balance sheet has little wiggle room for US yields slipping below 53 bpa if China purchases 25 mmt of US beans, the favorable weather forecast combined with a lack of fresh demand interest has fueled today’s speculative selling. History has shown that crop ratings can still move significantly higher, or lower from late July based on finishing weather. That said however, rain will be needed into mid-Sept for the US soybean crop to reach its full yield potential. Coming into today we have MM’s long just over 320k contracts in the soybean complex, vs. the all-time high this Spring at nearly 502k contracts. US Gulf FOB offers have slipped to $.10-$.15 below Brazilian offers for Sept thru Nov. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 25-65 mil. bu. for soybeans, 200-550k mt for meal and 0-10k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02 lower to $.03 higher with all 3 classes experiencing 2-sided trade. CGO Sept-26 was $.01 ¾ lower at $6.6- ¾, KC Sept-26 was $.00 ¾ lower at $7.25 ½ while MIAX Sept-26 was up $.02 ½ to $7.05. Wheat prices are less impacted by US weather as the US winter harvest hits the home stretch while spring wheat harvest is just underway. The need for War Premium remains as Russia and Ukraine continue to target each other’s port infrastructure and vessels with missile strikes. Grain movement will likely remain limited for the near term while also raising logistical costs. Russia is considering arming vessel with military personnel while 3 of their deep-water Black Sea terminals are now restricting grain intake. These 3 hubs, 2 in Novorossiysk and 1 in Taman, have the capacity to ship 20 mmt of grain annually. SovEcon lowered Russia’s 26/27 wheat export forecast 2 mmt to 44.6 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 47.5 mmt.
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