Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 10.2026
July 10, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.08-$.09 higher just off session highs. Resistance for Dec-26 rests at $4.66. Despite tighter stocks the USDA made no changes to their Ave. farm price forecast for either MY. That said however current stocks/use at 12.2% for 25/26 and 11% for 26/27 correspond well with their current price forecast of $4.15 and $4.40 respectively.
- US 2025/26 stocks cut 125 mil. bu. to 2.020 bil., 50 mil. below expectations
- Feed usage rose 150 mil. while usage for ethanol down 25 mil.
- 2026 US production at 16.0 bil. bu. in line with expectations while down 1.021 bil. from YA
- Trendline yield held at 183 bpa, 2nd highest ever
- New crop demand rose 50 mil. bu. on higher exports
- 2026/27 ending stocks forecast at 1.790 bil. down 170 mil. bu. and 80 mil. below expectations
- 2026/27 global stocks cut 6 mmt to 275.3 mmt, vs. expectations of 279 mmt
- EU production cut 3.7 mmt to 57.5 mmt, imports up 3 mmt to 22.5
SOYBEANS
Bean prices were $.09-$.14 higher led by old crop. Resistance for Nov-26 rests at $12.14. Meal closed $3 higher after trading to a 6-week high while bean oil was up 35-55 points while holding within this week’s range. With US weather uncertainty and the potential for Chinese demand I believe price dips will be well supported. I look for Nov-26 to trade above its May high. US weather the past 24 hours showed heavy rain across portions of the S. Midwest with isolated flooding likely in SE MO and S. IL. Rains in WCB brought some relief in W. NE and KS ahead of the expected temperature surge this weekend into next week. Precipitation over the week to favor the S. Midwest and SE. Little to no rain for the NW corn and soybean belt along with the N. plains. 100+ degree temperatures are expected across the Dakota’s Sunday thru Wed. of next week. Week 2 of the outlook shifts the high pressure ridge further west limiting yield threatening heat to the NW plains highly above normal temperatures likely to persist across much of the nation’s midsection.
- US 2025/26 stocks cut 10 mil. bu. to 330 mil. on higher exports, 10 mil. below expectations
- 2026 US production at 4.475 bil. bu. 15 mil. above expectations
- Trendline yield held at a record 53 bpa
- New crop demand rose 30 mil. bu. on higher exports
- 2026/27 ending stocks forecast at 310 mil. unchanged from June and 20 mil. below expectations
- 2026/27 global stocks at 124.2 mmt were 1 mmt below expectations
- Chinese imports were raised 1 mmt for both 2025/26 and 2026/27 MY’s to 113 and 115 mmt respectively
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.13 to $.22 higher. Sept-26 CGO was up $.20 ½ at $6.40 ¼ jumping out to a 6-week high. Sept-26 KC was $.22 higher at $6.76 ¼. Today’s high was at the 50% retracement from the May high to the June low. Strength in MIAX lagged a bit on the higher than expecting spring wheat production forecast. Sept-26 was up $.13 ½ at $6.52 ½.
- US 2026 production was lowered 7 mil. to 1.536 bil. bu. the lowest since 1970, however 10 mil. above expectations
- yield rose to 47.9 bpa while harvested acres were down 800k as outlined in June
- Winter wheat production at 990 mil. was down 40 mil. bu. and the lowest in 51 years while 10 mil. below expectations
- HRW production down 26 mil. to 471, SRW down 13 mil. to 287 mil
- Spring wheat production at 475 mil. was 20 mil. above expectations with the Ave. yield forecast at a record 52.3 bpa
- 2026/27 usage unchanged at 1.874 bil. with stocks at 722 mil., 10 mil. above expectations
- The 2026/27 Ave. farm price held steady at $6.00 bu.
- 2026/27 global stocks slipped 2.6 mmt to 273 mmt, in line with expectations
- EU production for now unchanged at 136 mmt
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