Written Commentary
Hormuz Risks Persist
May 8, 2026
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mixed trade across the Ag space this AM with most contracts experiencing 2-sided trade. Markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East while April US employment data is due out later this AM. Still waiting for Iran’s response to the US latest 1 page peace proposal. Pres. Trump maintains that the US/Iran ceasefire is intact despite the exchange of gunfire in the Straits of Hormuz while both sides claiming the other struck first. US Central Command said military forces “intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes. Pres. Trump posted there was “no damage done to the three Destroyers, but great damage done to Iranian attackers” while describing the exchange as “just a love tap.” Energy prices are slightly higher with WTI June-26 crude oil up $.20 a barrel near $95. Spot RBOB and HO are both slightly higher. Mostly dry across the nation’s midsection the past 24 hours with rains in the SE. Rainfall over the next week to favor the Gulf coast and SE with lighter amounts across the central Midwest. Little to no precipitation in WCB and N. plains. Above normal temperatures in the west will begin to shift into the central Midwest by late next week. Moderate to heavy rain in NE Argentina the past 24 hours. These rains have slid east into SW Brazil. Rains in Brazil to favor Southern MGDS and the interior south region. Temperatures hold below normal in Argentina and S. Brazil, while hot/dry in central and northern Brazil. The US $$$ is lower in 2-sided trade while holding within yesterday’s range. US stock indices are higher awaiting the US jobs report. Traders expect 55k jobs were created in April with the nation’s unemployment rate holding at 4.3%.
Corn:
July-26 and Dec-26 are both $.01 lower at $4.66 ½ and $4.88 ½ respectively. July is hovering near its 50-day MA at $4.66 ½ with next support at $4.60 ½. MA support for Dec rests at $4.84 ¼. Traders expect little change in old crop ending stocks in next Tues. USDA WASDE report. We look for a 25 mil. bu. cut to 2.102 bil. Look for exports and feed usage to rise 25 mil. each with demand for ethanol down 25 mil. 2026 production is expected to fall nearly 1.1 bil. bu. to 15.935 bil. due to lower acres. I do not expect the trendline yield of 183 bpa from the Feb-26 Outlook Forum to change in May. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 61 mmt vs. the USDA est. of 52 mmt. Harvest progress has reached 30%.
Soybeans:
July-26 beans are $.02 ¼ higher at $11.94 ½, while Nov-26 is up $.03 at $11.76 ½. July-26 meal is up $.70 at $319.60 while July-26 oil is 35 points higher at 74.50. Inside trade for both July and Nov soybeans. Crush margins rebounded overnight after backing up $.20 bu. the past 2 sessions. I’d expect the CFTC to print another record large, long position by MM’s in soybean oil and across the soybean complex. Attention will now shift toward Pres. Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi late next week in Beijing. Without any more old crop sales to China, the USDA soybean export forecast at 1.540 bil. bu. is likely too large. The Ave. guess in the Reuters poll shows old crop ending stocks slipping 5 mil. bu. to 345. New crop production is expected to increase just over 180 mil. bu. to 4.445 bil. with trendline yields holding at 53 bpa. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 48.6 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 48 mmt. Harvest progress jumped 16% to 34%, still just below the historical average of 39%.
Wheat:
Prices range from steady to $.04 higher with all 3 classes holding within yesterday’s range. CGO July-26 is up $.00 ¾ at $6.13, KC July-26 is $.02 ¾ higher at $6.70 while MIAX July-26 is up $.04 at $6.77 ¾. I see no changes in old crop stocks, holding at 938 mil. bu. My all-wheat production forecast at 1.730 bil. is down 130 mil. from the Feb-26 Outlook and down 255 mil. from YA. My winter wheat production forecast at 1.185 bil. bu. is down 217 mil. from YA. By class production: HRW – 605 mil., SRW – 345 mil. and white – 235 mil. My forecasts are all reasonably close to the Ave. est. in the Reuters poll. IKAR cut Russia’s 25/26 export forecast 1.5 mmt to 44.5 mmt, falling in line with the USDA est.
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