Global Ag News For May 7.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Canada Wheat Stocks on March 31 Rose 12% From Year Ago

Stocks of Canadian wheat as of March 31 rose to 19.47m tons vs. 17.38m in the same period last year, according to Statistics Canada.

• Durum wheat rose to 3.42m tons vs. 2.87m
• Canola rose to 9.99m tons vs 7.84m in the same period last year

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 8 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal up $2.60; Soyoil down 0.49.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 23 3/4 in SRW, down 16 1/4 in HRW, down 1/7 in HRS; Corn is down 13 1/4; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil down 0.63.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 22 3/4 in SRW, down 15 1/4 in HRW, down 1/6 in HRS; Corn is down 7 3/4; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil down 0.01.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 17.8% in SRW, up 31.3% in HRW, up 19.1% in HRS; Corn is up 2.3%; Soybeans up 14.1%; Soymeal up 8.9%; Soyoil up 58.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 26) Soybeans down 101 yuan; Soymeal down 19; Soyoil down 80; Palm oil down 139; Corn down 28 — Malaysian Palm is down 33.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 33 ringgit (-0.72%) at 4546.

There were changes in registrations (-11 Corn, -4 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 273 SRW Wheat contracts; 208 Oats; 382 Corn; 890 Soybeans; 1,506 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 437 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 6 were: SRW Wheat down 1,055 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,771, Corn down 10,150, Soybeans down 8,142, Soymeal up 4,007, Soyoil up 4,902.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 07 MAY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmer temperatures are expected across much of the U.S. over the next 15 days, while drier conditions persist across the Northwest and Plains winter wheat regions.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cooler temperatures with dry spells will persist across the Pampas corn and soybean regions, while Brazil’s Southeast/eastern/central Center West turn dry, and wet spells remains confined to the South/southern Center-West.
• EUROPE: Mixed temperatures with isolated wet spells are expected across Central Europe over the next 15 days.
• ASIA: Wet spells in China may delay winter wheat harvesting, while dry conditions support the harvest in northern India. Rains are delaying sugarcane harvest in Thailand and aiding palm oil in Indonesia–Malaysia, but dry spells threaten coffee development in Vietnam.
• TELECONNECTIONS: MJO Phase 2 is forecast to bring mixed conditions across tropical weather through mid-May.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers Wednesday, heavy snow west. Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to well below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday. Pacific Northwest Highlights… Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.  

Midwest – West: Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Midwest – East: Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Delta: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

 

The player sheet for 5/6 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 21,000 corn, sellers of 11,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 7,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 50,000 metric tons of soymeal in an international tender seeking up to 60,000 tons on Thursday, European traders said. One consignment was believed to have been bought from trading house Cofco at an estimated $414.79 a ton cost and freight (c&f) including a surcharge for additional port unloading.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) on Thursday purchased about 132,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins, European traders said.
• MILLING WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has bought around 390,000 to 420,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, European traders said. The size of the purchase in tonnage terms was still being assessed by traders but this was below some initial estimates of around 650,000 tons.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for price offers is May 12.
• NO PURCHASE IN FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday, European traders said. A new tender for 120,000 tons of feed barley is expected to be issued by Jordan in coming days with anticipated submission of price offers on May 13, traders said. 

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYOIL OR RAPESEED OIL TENDER: Tunisian state agency ONH has issued an international tender to purchase up to 6,000 metric tons of vegetable oils, European traders said on Tuesday. Either crude degummed soyoil or crude degummed rapeseed oil is sought. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is May 7.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending April 30.

• Corn est. range 1,000k – 1,800k tons, with avg of 1,200k
• Soybean est. range 200k – 600k tons, with avg of 319k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.5% to 26.02M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.873 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.017m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.039m

 

 Chinese exporters ‘numb’ to U.S. threats as Trump set to visit

• Trump plans to visit Beijing on May 14 and 15
• U.S. restrained by China’s supply chain leverage
• Tariffs slip from forefront of U.S.-China rivalry
• Chinese exporters less responsive to Trump statements
• Firms expect short-term truce, not a reset

President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing this month is none of her business, says Chinese salesperson Yu Yangxian, even though a large share of the electric lockers and vending machines sold by her company are destined for the United States.

“As long as the United States continues to trade, it will have to do business with us,” said Yu, whose company uses a strategy of partially passing on added costs to U.S. consumers. “China’s supply chains and the product quality are strong.”

While tariffs still matter, she said the company emerged from a turbulent 2025, when levies briefly rose to triple-digits, with its U.S. client base largely intact and, like many Chinese exporters, gaining new markets globally.

That shows how competitive and resilient Chinese manufacturing has become, Yu added, by following a long-time national strategy of self-sufficiency to build nearly complete domestic supply chains across industries.

“Whether he comes to negotiate or to declare a fight, it does not pose a major threat to us,” she added, speaking of Trump.

EXPANDING TO MORE REGIONS

Expanding in Europe, South America, Southeast Asia and Africa is the other prong of her firm’s strategy to cope with Trump’s tariffs and the rising prices of raw materials brought by the Iran war, Yu said.

It replicates Beijing’s national game plan.

China ended 2025 with a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion – the size of the Dutch economy – pushing into new markets by offering lower prices than incumbent competitors.

Exports to the United States fell 20%, but rose 25.8% to Africa, 7.4% to Latin America, ​13.4% to Southeast Asia and 8.4% to the European Union.

To get Trump to row back on tariffs, Beijing leveraged global dependence on Chinese supply chains and put export controls on rare earths.

These materials, critical in some semiconductor and defence uses, are produced almost exclusively by China, and industries worldwide, including U.S. firms, cannot function without them.

“The rare earth thing really is just the ultimate trump card,” said Cameron Johnson, senior partner at supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions.

Beijing can also curb supplies of pharmaceuticals, industrial machinery or the transformers the United States needs to expand its electric grid, he added.

In the short term, the Iran war gives Trump some leverage because the United States has excess energy that China and others need, but longer-term Beijing’s industrial breadth gives it an edge if the conflict escalates, he said.

“That’s why they’re playing nice,” Johnson added, referring to Washington.

RELOCATION PRESSURE ON CHINESE FIRMS SUBSIDES

As tariffs fade from the forefront of the U.S.-China rivalry, manufacturers in China face less pressure to diversify their production base.

Jonathan Chitayat, Asia head at Genimex Group, a contract manufacturer whose U.S. business makes up 70% of revenue, found new suppliers in Vietnam and Thailand during Trump’s first term, and more recently in India and Indonesia.

But 75% of his network of 500 suppliers is still in China, many of whom abandoned plans to relocate after the U.S. cut back levies on China, while they rose elsewhere.

“We’ve all learned not to take drastic action,” he said. “Everyone who waited feels pretty good about waiting now.”

Mike Sagan, vice-president of sourcing at Pride Mobility Products, a maker of wheelchairs, scooters and other items for those with difficulty moving about, said his firm’s supply chain of roughly 100 firms remains 70% to 80% reliant on China.

“De-risking and diversification aren’t going to go away, but it doesn’t have to be as rushed,” Sagan said.

“The panic has worn off and people have grown a little tougher skin when it comes to Trump making statements.”

‘TRUCE IS GREAT’ BUT NOT ENOUGH

Companies no longer overreact to Trump’s moves, having become “numb” to his threats, said Ren Yanlin, an executive at a Chinese firm dealing with overseas factory projects.

“The mindset is that it doesn’t matter anymore.”

Eric Zheng, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in the commercial hub of Shanghai, said the association’s nearly 3,000 members had limited expectations of what Trump can achieve on his trip, but drew consolation from the prospect of dialogue.

They would welcome an extended truce on tariffs and export curbs, potentially with some Chinese purchase commitments in areas such as Boeing aricraft, soybeans, or U.S. energy, he said.

But few counted on lasting relief.

“A truce is great, better than a trade war, but a truce is temporary,” said Zheng.

“We need some certainty. Companies need to plan for the long term, not the next 90 days, not even six months. It has to be several years.”

 

Brazil’s soy area to grow only marginally in 2026/27, says Argus

Brazil’s soybean area is expected to post only marginal growth in the 2026/27 season due to higher production costs and risks linked to the El Nino climate phenomenon, Argus analyst Nathalia Giannetti said on Wednesday.

• Farmers in the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter are facing tighter margins pressured by rising fertilizer costs amid geopolitical tensions, reducing incentives for a larger area expansion, Giannetti said at an event.
• Possible strong El Nino poses additional risks for the upcoming crop, according to Argus
• A strong El Nino would likely be more damaging for Brazil’s soy output than a La Nina scenario
• El Nino conditions risk drought in Brazil’s Center-West, the country’s top grain-producing region, and excess rainfall in the South
• “Excess rain is a problem and lack of rain is an even greater one,” Gianetti said
• Argus has yet to publish an area forecast for the season, which begins planting in mid-September

 

Russian Wheat Exports Rose 19% Y/y in May: Rusagrotrans

Russia’s wheat exports for May are expected to total 2.5 million tons, 19% above the same period last year, according to the analytical center of railway operator Rusagrotrans.

• April shipments totaled nearly 3.95m tons, compared to 2.39m tons last year

  

FERTILIZER TENDER: India Seeks to Import 521,000 Tons of Ammonia

Indian Potash Ltd. issued a tender on Wednesday to import 521,000 tons of anhydrous ammonia.

• The company will buy 370,000 tons through the country’s east coast, while the remaining volumes will come via the west coast
• Offers will be valid until May 25, and cargoes are to be shipped between June and August
• The tender is being issued on behalf of major Indian fertilizer companies as part of the country’s “consortium approach” to fertilizer imports

  

Canada Wheat Stocks on March 31 Rose 12% From Year Ago

Stocks of Canadian wheat as of March 31 rose to 19.47m tons vs. 17.38m in the same period last year, according to Statistics Canada.

• Durum wheat rose to 3.42m tons vs. 2.87m
• Canola rose to 9.99m tons vs 7.84m in the same period last year

 

ALL SIGNS POINT TO PERSISTING STRONG EL NIÑO STATE THROUGH SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER TIME FRAME

What to Watch:

• Consensus between forecast inputs leads to high confidence outlook
• Potential for large crop impacts globally

 

 

 

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