ADMIS News
FX in Tight Range Ahead of Talks
April 21, 2026
SUGAR
July Sugar was higher early Tuesday, and hit has managed to hold above Friday’s two-month low for the second straight session, as well as the contract low from February. The large global supply in 2025/26 is being countered by tightening expectations for 2026/27. Czarnikow is forecast a global sugar surplus of 1.1 million metric tons in 2026/27, which is about 300,000 tons smaller than their March forecast and down from 3.4 million forecast in February. They did point out that there is a risk of lower production due to El Nino, which tends to bring hot and dry conditions to India and Thailand. They mentioned that even a minor change in production could tip the global balance into deficit. Czarnikow also lowered its surplus forecast for 2025/26 to 5.8 million tons from 6.7 million in its February forecast.
COCOA
July Cocoa was lower early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range. The market has taken a step back from its rally earlier this month as it digests last week’s 1st quarter grind data, which showed declines in Europe and Asia that were at or slightly larger than expected but a surprise increase in Asia. Ivory Coast port arrivals were estimated at 20,000 metric tons for the week ending April 19, up from 17,000 the previous week but down from 23,000 a year ago. Cumulative arrivals for the 2025/26 marketing year that began last October have reached 1.482 million tons, up from 1.480 at this point last year but below the five-year average of 1.658 million. Ivory Coast farmers told Reuters that rains were mostly below average last week in most of the nation’s cocoa-growing regions. The weather wasn’t putting at trees at risk, but more rainfall was needed to boost the mid-crop. World Weather Inc. said daily on Monday that showers and thunderstorms are likely across west Africa growing regions through the next week. Nestle India posted a 26% increase in quarterly profit on Tuesday, benefiting from strong demand for packaged foods. Among those mentioned were KitKat bars. Revenue during the March quarter grew 23%.
COTTON
July Cotton was slightly lower early Tuesday and short of Monday’s two-year high. The cotton market has done a good job of bidding for acres with its rally from 67 cents in February to 80 cents this week. US plantings are just getting started. They are a bit behind last year but on par with normal. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 11% of the US cotton crop was planted as of April 19, up from 7% the previous week and 10% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 10%. Texas was 16% planted, up from 11% last week and 15% a year ago and on par with the five-year average. Georgia was 3% planted, up from 1% last week and the same as a year ago and on par with the five-year average as well. The extremely dry conditions in the US cotton belt does not appear to be limiting plantings so far. As of last Tuesday approximately 97% of US cotton production was in an area experiencing drought. World Weather Inc. said on Monday that South Texas and northeastern Mexico saw some showers over the weekend but much more was needed. They expect increasing rainfall during the next couple of weeks. West Texas should also see a better opportunity for showers, and the Delta should start getting more timely rainfall this weekend and next week, but a full recovery to normal soil moisture is unlikely.
COFFEE
After a mild rally on Mondy, July Coffee resumed its selloff from the mid-April highs overnight. The rallies in March and earlier this month fell short of technical objectives, and this seems to be keeps any bullish momentum at bay. The imminent arrival of the Brazilian crop also limits rally potential. The robusta harvest is expected to start this month and arabica in May. Brazil’s robusta production is expected to be slightly lower than last year, but the arabica harvest is expected to be very strong after good growing weather and because it is the on-year in the crop’s biennial cycle. Last week Safras & Mercado raised their forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop to 75.65 million bags, up 4.65 million from their previous estimate and up 17% from 2025/26. Arabica production was forecast to be +29% from 2025/26. However, the strong Brazilian real disincentivizes exporter sales.
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