Written Commentary
Ag Market View for April 20.2026
April 20, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.03 higher in choppy 2-sided trade. Spreads were slightly firmer. July-26 has resistance at LW’s high at $4.62 ½. Resistance for Dec-26 is at $4.81. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s sold 59k contracts cutting their long position to 159k. By Friday’s close I’d estimate that long position down to 144k. COF as of April 1st at 11.576 mil. head was down .5% YOY vs. expectations of down .3%. Placements were down 7.3% slightly below expectations while marketing were down 5.5% slightly less than expected. Export inspections at 66 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 62 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 2.036 bil. are up 32% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 20 mil., Japan – 14 mil. and S. Korea with 11 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices are sharply mixed with beans ranging from $.02 lower to $.02 higher, meal was down $3-$7 while oil has surged nearly $.01 ½ lb. in nearby futures. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads firmed. July-26 beans are consolidating in an $11.55-$12 range. Resistance for Nov-26 is at LW’s high at $11.64 ¼. July-26 meal has support at its 50-day MA at $318.30. Despite the surge, July-26 oil held within Friday’s range. Heightened tension in the Persian Gulf this weekend led to a rebound in energy prices. The US Navy seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman while Iran fired on commercial vessels attempting to pass thru the Straits of Hormuz, effectively shutting it down once again. Iran states that the US blockade of their ports is a violation of the ceasefire agreement and bring uncertainty to future peace negotiations. Meanwhile Pres. Trump has again threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure if they do not agree to the US peace proposal. Spot board crush margins rebounded a few cents to $3.15 ½ bu. while bean oil PV jumped 1% to 51.7%. Money managers were net sellers of just over 14k contracts of soybeans, 2k contracts of bean oil while buyers of over 42k contracts of meal. The aggressive buying in meal stretched the combined MM long position in the soybean complex to a record large 459k contracts. Index funds are also sitting on a record large position in soybean meal. The markets attention will gradually shift to Pres. Trump’s meeting in Beijing with Chinese leader Xi next month.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02 lower in KC to $.07 higher in CGO. Spreads weakened in CGO while mixed in KC. KC premium over CGO traded to a new high overnight at $.54 before collapsing to $.41 ½. KC July-26 stalled just below LW’s 13 month high at $6.63. Weekend temperatures dipped into the mid 20’s in NW Kansas while mid-teens were common in the N. Plains, inflicting further damage to the US winter wheat crop already impacted by drought. CGO wheat was the lone area within the Ag. Space where MM’s held a net short position.
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