Written Commentary
Flexing on Peace
April 16, 2026
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil was mixed overnight on shifting attitudes towards prospects of a Middle East peace. Once source told Reuters that a key Pakistani mediator had made a breakthrough on “sticky issues.” A source in Tehran said the proposals Iran has offered include allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack. Pakistan’s army chief and a key figure in the mediation, Field Marshal Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Wednesday. Reuters overnight reported that a second US-sanctioned supertanker has entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping data despite the blockade on vessels visiting Iranian ports. Wednesday’s EIA stocks report was supportive to crude oil and bullish for gasoline and diesel. Net crude imports fell to just 66,000 barrels per day last week due to a drop in imports and an increase in exports.
PRODUCTS
The EIA report on Wednesday showed US gasoline stocks were -6.3 million barrels for the week ending April 10 versus -2.1 million expected and distillate stocks were -3.1 million barrels versus -2.4 million expected. Implied gasoline demand was 9.088 million bpd last week versus 8.564 million the previous week and 8.462 million a year ago, and implied distillate demand was 3.840 million bpd versus 4.060 million the previous week and 3.858 million a year ago.
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas was near unchanged early Thursday having managed to hold above Tuesday’s lows. For the EIA gas storage report today, the Reuters poll has an average expectation for a net injection of 51 billion cubic feet for the week ending April 10 (range +40 to +62). The five-year average change is +28 bcf (range +15 to 57). If the report comes in at the average expectation, Storage would be +6.3% from a year ago and +4.3% above the five-year average versus +4.4% and +4.4% the previous week. Mild weather in the US has lowered demand, allowing a sharp increase in supply for the shoulder season. The weather maps do show a less dominant trend of above normal temperatures out ahead.
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