Written Commentary
Cocoa Rally Gains Traction
April 1, 2026
CRUDE OIL
May Crude Oil was lower early Wednesday following a lower close on Monday. Comments from Iran suggested they were open for peace discussions after having denied they were occurring despite comments to the contrary from President Trump. Trump is expected to make a prime time speech tonight, which is building suspense over whether he will mention a possible ground action by US troops or some sort of “peace agreement.” Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia may hike its May crude official selling prices to Asia for flagship Arab Light crude to premiums of $22.50 to $40.50 per barrel above the average of Dubai and Oman quotes. This would be $20 to $38 higher than the OSP for April and would be a new record.
PRODUCTS
May RBOB was lower early Wednesday after reversing lower from on new contract highs on Tuesday. Divergence with RSI on the moves to contract highs suggests a loss of momentum, as does the steady decline in open interest on the rally. Reuters reports that API gasoline stocks were -3.21 million barrels last week versus an average trade expectation of -1.9 million, and distillates were -1.04 million versus -600,000 expected.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas was trading inside the lower part of Tuesday’s range early Wednesday, and the market is withing the vicinity of the January lows. Exxon Mobil Corporation and QatarEnergy have officially begun LNG production at their Golden Pass LNG facility in Texas, which will help increase the offtake from US supply. For the EIA gas storage report this week, the early Reuters survey has an expectation ranging from a net injection of 7 to 38 billion cubic feet for the week ending March 27.
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