ADMIS News
Ag Market View for March 31.2026
March 31, 2026
COFFEE
May Coffee was higher early Tuesday following three straight sessions where the market went straight down. Analysts have turned bearish on the market with expectations of a strong (perhaps record) crop out of Brazil and worries about Middle Eastern demand. It did not help that the rally last week came up short of the 0.382 retracement of the selloff from the October highs, which dashed expectations for a significant recovery rally. There was a mix of weather over the weekend that was supportive to crops in west Africa, Indonesia, and parts of Central America, but some net drying occurred in Brazil.
COTTON
May Cotton extended its rally early Tuesday to reach its highest level since last August. Crude oil prices were higher at one point, which raises the cost to produce polyester. The stock market turned higher as well, which is supportive for demand, but keep in mind that cotton has rallied as equity prices have declined. World Weather Incl said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting and establishment but that rain potentials will improve during early April. West Texas also needs rain, and only light amounts are expected.
SUGAR
May Sugar was lower early Tuesday after reversing lower on Monday from a 5 ½ month high but managed to get a significant bounce off its overnight lows. Higher oil prices should increase the incentive to crush sugar cane for ethanol and pull it away from sugar production, particularly in Brazil. Traders have noted that the Brazilian state-run oil company Petrobras has yet to raise gasoline prices, and they may be getting impatient. Unica’s update on Brazil Center-South sugar production on Friday showed sugar production for the first half of March was 6,000 metric tons, down from 53,000 a year ago but up from 1,000 for the second half of February. Crushing activity is gearing up for the new marketing year, which officially begins April 1, but at a slower pace. Sugar’s share of the crush was 4.9% during the first half of March versus 30.1% for the same period last year. Back in August the share was 55%. Sugar’s share of crush tends to decline as the season progresses, but this year it declined faster than normal, even before crude oil prices took off. Cumulative share for 2025/26 was 50.6% versus 48.1% a year ago.
COCOA
May Cocoa put on an impressive show early Tuesday, reaching its highest level since March 23 and trading in its widest range since that day. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals at ports totaled 31,000 metric tons for the week ending March 29, up from 22,000 the previous week and 14,000 a year ago. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began in October have reached 1.423 million tons, down from 1.441 million a year ago and below the five year average at 1.575 million. Despite last week’s reports of cocoa going unsold in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the increase in arrivals may be telling a different story. Ivory coast farmers told Reuters that that above-average rainfall across most the nation’s cocoa growing areas last week has boosted expectations for a longer and more productive mid-crop.
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