Prices Mixed Across The Ag Space

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Prices are mixed across the Ag space this AM as traders await clarity from the EPA on the long awaited RVO/SRE policies along with key USDA stocks and acreage data next week.  Yesterday EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said US biofuel blending quota’s would be announced before month end however could come as early as Friday when the Trump Admin. is hosting an Ag. event at the White House.  Energy prices have rebounded from yesterday’s sharp declines while so far no major market moving headlines.  Still not much clarity from Pres. Trump’s Truth Social post yesterday suggesting talks to end the conflict with Iran were productive causing a halt to strikes against their energy infrastructure.  Iranian media reports there have been no direct talks.  Spot WTI crude is up $2.90 a barrel near $91, after falling just over $10 yesterday.  Spot RBOB is up $.10 per gallon with HO $.16 higher.  Outside of some light rains in the central and ECB much of the US Midwest to remain dry into month end.  Much above normal temperatures will expand across the SW plains this week before cooling this weekend.  Above normal temperatures and precipitation is forecast for much of the nations midsection as we move into April.  EC Argentina to remain in a wetter than normal pattern.  Scattered showers to the South, dry in the north.  Nearly all of Brazil will receive some moisture over the next 7 days with heaviest totals in Mato Grosso.  The US $$ is moderately higher while holding within yesterday’s range.  US stock indices are slightly lower.

Corn: 

May-26 is up $.02 at $4.61 ½ while Dec-26 is $.01 ½ higher at $4.88.  Both trading both sides of unchanged while holding within yesterday’s range.  Look for May-26 to hold in a $4.40-$4.80 range with energy likely to drive any directional breakout.  US corn plantings are underway with LA at 46%, TX at 42%, MS 26% and AR 9%.

Soybeans: 

May-26 beans are down $.05 at $11.58 ½ while Nov-26 is $.03 lower at $11.43 ½.  May-26 meal is down a buck $325.60 while bean oil is down 20 points at 65.38.  After reaching a fresh 3 ½ year high last week, spot board crush margins backed off a few cents yesterday to $2.76 ½ bu. with bean oil PV ticking just over 50%.  After moderate speculative buying yesterday I’ve got MM’s holding a record long position in bean oil at nearly 131k contracts. With Pres. Trump’s trip to Beijing likely delayed until late April at the earliest and US Gulf offers still $1 bu. over Brazilian FOB offers I see the odds of significant Chinese buying of old crop soybeans as very low.  This while China/Brazil have reached an agreement to drop the zero-tolerance for the presence of weeds in Brazilian soy shipments.  My Mch. 1^st stocks forecast is 2.116 bil. bu. vs. 1.911 bil. YA.

Wheat: 

Prices range from $.01 to $.03 higher with all 3 classes seeing 2 sided trade overnight.  CGO May-26 is up $.01 ¾ at $5.89 ½.  KC May-26 also up $.01 ¾ at $6.05.  Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show above normal precipitation across the US plains, which would be of great benefit to the winter crop emerging from dormancy.  Conditions in KS fell 6% to 46% G/E, CO fell 5% to 24% G/E, OK was down 4% to only 14% G/E while TX improved 1% to 16%.

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