Written Commentary
Ag Market View for March 12.2026
March 12, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 higher with spreads also firming. Both May-26 and Dec-26 holding below this week’s high of $4.76 and $4.98 ½ respectively. Following recent rains the Rosario Grain Exchange held their Argentine production forecast steady at 62 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 52 mmt. Their acreage est. at 8.13 mil. HA and yield of 7.63 tons/HA are both well above the USDA 7.5 mil. HA and yield of 6.93 tons/HA. Expana lowered their EU 26/27 corn production forecast .4 mmt to 57.9 mmt, still above the USDA est. of 56.95. Export sales at 60 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and bring YTD commitments to 2.619 bil. bu. up 32% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Commitments represent 79% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 72%. Census exports from Jan-26 at 260 mil. bu. were down 7% from Dec-25 however up 7% from Jan-25. Cumulative sales over the 1st 5 months of the MY at 1.360 bil. bu. are up 40% YOY. To reach the current USDA forecast sales Feb. thru Aug will need to reach 1.94 bil., up 3% YOY.
SOYBEANS
Prices closed moderately higher across the complex pulling back from the intraday highs. Beans were $.04-$.13 higher, meal was up $2-$5 while oil was 20-25 higher. Spreads slightly firmer all around. May-26 beans traded to their highest level since Dec-23 with next resistance near $12.58. May-26 meal traded to a new high for the month with next resistance at LM’s high of $325.50. May-26 oil held with yesterday’s range while holding within striking distance of its contract high at 69.91. The Rosario Grain Exchange held their Argentine production forecast steady at 48 mmt, in line with the USDA. US Treasury Sec. Bessent and USTR Greer are meeting this weekend in Paris with Chinese trade officials ahead of Pres. Trump/Xi meeting in Beijing later this month. Bulls remain hopeful for fresh Chinese purchases despite US Gulf FOB offers $1.00-$1.30 over Brazilian prices. Reports that Cargill has paused Brazilian soybean shipments to China over changes to their inspection procedures has helped widen that gap. US ending stocks at 350 mil. bu. is arguably bearish from these price levels, however the potential for additional Chinese demand drawing stocks closer to 300 mil. bu. is fueling speculative interest. Surging input prices (fertilizer) is limiting farmer selling interest. Exports at 17 mil. were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 1.341 bil. are down 19% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. Sales to China at 83k mt (68k switched from unknown) bring commitments to 10.9 mmt with another 2.0 mmt parked in unknown. Shipments to China are just over 7.3 mmt. Meal sales at 166k tons bring YTD commitments to 12,173k tons up 11% YOY vs. the USDA up 5%. Net cancellations of bean oil lowered commitments to 785 mil. lbs. down 57% YOY vs. USDA forecast of down 52%. Census exports from Jan-26 at 223 mil. bu. were up 30% from Dec-25 and up 11.7% from Jan-25. Cumulative sales over the 1st 5 months of the MY are down 36%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.03 lower in MIAX to $.04 higher in CGO. CGO May-26 failed to hold trade above $6.00. KC May-26 was unchanged. Spreads were steady to slightly firmer. Just a reminder the VSR for CGO futures drops to $.00165 next week on the 19th. The RGE forecasts Argentine production at 29.5 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 27.8 mmt. Russian exports in March are expected to reach 3.7 mmt, nearly double the 2.0 mmt shipped in Mch-25. Exports at 17 mil. bu. were above expectations while bringing YTD commitments to 864 mil. bu. up 12% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Census exports from Jan-26 at 57 mil. bu. were down 19% from Dec-25 while up 16% from Jan-25. Cumulative sales over the 1st 8 months of the MY are up 20%.
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