Written Commentary
Ag Market View for March 9.2026
March 9, 2026
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil prices reached almost $120 per barrel early Monday, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, after Iran named Khamenei’s son to succeed his father as supreme leader. This was taken as an indication that the hardliners remain in charge and that there would not be a quick end to the war in the Middle East. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, producers in the Persian Gulf are having to reduce production as storage fills up. Once oil producers stop production, it takes a while to restart, which means that the current cutoff in supply could last well past a reopening of the Strait. Iraq oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen to 1.3 million barrels per day from 4.3 million bpd before the war. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are also output. G7 finance ministers are expected to discuss a release of emergency oil reserves today.
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, the products rallied sharply overnight on news that Khamenei’s son had been named Supreme Leader of Iran. Nearby RBOB and ULSDA reached their highest levels late summer/fall 2022 when the markets were still dealing with the repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine war.
NATURAL GAS
April Natural Gas got on board with the energy rally overnight, reaching its highest level since February 2, when it was selling off from the rally ahead of the cold weather blast at the end of January. European prices continue to gain on US prices, as the US has more or less reached the limit on its LNG exports, while Qatar’s exports (20% of LNG supply) have been cut off by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
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