Written Commentary
Ag Market View for March 5.2026
March 5, 2026
CORN
Prices were up $.07-$.10 closing near session highs. Spreads also firmed. May-26 broke out to a fresh 2 month high as commodities try to keep up with soaring input costs driven by the surge in energy prices. Next resistance is the Nov-25 high at $4.64 ¾. New crop Dec-26 jumped to its highest level since May-24. Exports at 80 mil. bu. were above expectations and bring YTD commitments to 2.558 bil. bu. up 31% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Commitments represent 77.5% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 70%. Noted buyers were Korea – 21 mil. while Mexico and Colombia bought 9 mil. each.
SOYBEANS
Steady to sharply higher today with beans up $.06-$.10, meal was $1-$2 lower while nearby oil contracts were up over $.02 lbs. Bean and meal spreads are steady to higher while oil spreads surged. Despite the higher trade May-26 beans continue to hold within Monday’s range. New contract high for May-26 oil as it extended its run of consecutive higher closes to 9 sessions. Fresh 18 month high on the weekly chart. A new round of Iranian missile attacks on Israel, American bases and other ME targets along with unconfirmed reports of a missile strike on an oil tanker idled near the Straits of Hormuz fueled the price spikes. Soybean exports at 14 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 1.324 bil. are down 18% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. Commitments represent 84% of the USDA forecast in line with the historical average. Sales to China at 153k mt (133k switched from unknown) bring total commitments to 10.8 mmt with another 2.2 mmt to unknown. Shipments to China are just over 6.8 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices surged $.10-$.20 across the 3 classes with KC futures leading the way. Spreads were steady to slightly firmer. CGO May-26 rebounded to about the midpoint of this week’s range. Resistance for KC May-26 is at this week’s high of $5.95 ¼. Still no deliveries against Mch-26 CGO. All wheat acres in Canada at 26.74 mil. were also below expectations of 26.9 – 27.3 mil. and slightly below the 27.03 mil. from YA. Durum acres at 6.4 were above expectations of 5.5-6.2 mil. US winter wheat acres in drought jumped 6% to 56%, the highest since Nov-24. Exports at 7.5 mil. bu. were below expectations while bringing YTD commitments to 847 mil. bu. up 14% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Commitments represent 94% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of up 89%. By class commitments vs. USDA forecast are HRW +65% vs. USDA +49%, SRW +1% vs. -2.5%, HRS down 7% vs. -8%, and white down 4% vs. – 6%.
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