Written Commentary
April Crude Oil Pushed to New Highs
February 27, 2026
CRUDE OIL
April Crude Oil pushed to new highs for the week early Friday after the Iran/US talks ended on Thursday without an agreement, as apparently the talks stalled over US insistence on zero enrichment of uranium by Iran. President Trump stated back on February 19 that Iran must make a deal within 10-15 days or “really bad things” would happen. That would leave a deadline of sometime next week, and therefore puts the threat of a US attack front of mind. One of the concerns is that Iran would attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz out of the Persian Gulf, through which the equivalent of 20% of the global oil consumption is shipped. However, as Iran is among those countries to ship oil through that area, they may be reluctant to cut off a main source of income
PRODUCTS
April RBOB extended its rally higher early Friday and reached its highest level since July 2024, with the nearby contract reaching its highest level since August. April ULSD is approaching contract highs at 2.6126 from January 2023, with the nearby contract approaching January’s 22-month high. The EIA report on Wednesday showed US gasoline stocks fell a bit more than expected during the week ending February 20 , and distillate stocks increased instead of decreasing.
NATURAL GAS
April Natural Gas was higher early Friday after falling to its lowest level since January 16 on Thursday. The market has given back most of its gains from the brief but extreme cold spell I late January and the weather forecast is mild but perhaps it is looking beyond US heating demand to the expected increase in power demand for data centers as well as increasing exports of US LNG. The 6-10-day forecast shows above normal temperatures covering most of the lower 48 states, and that extends into the 8-14-day, except for an area of near normal temps in the western Rockies and the Great Basin. The EIA gas storage report showed a slightly smaller withdrawal last week than expected, and that helped push the market lower.
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