Written Commentary
Ag Market View for February 9.2026
February 9, 2026
SOYBEANS
There was another historic trading volume day in the soy complex on Friday, as beans and meal both saw all-time high volumes as the bull move continued. Bean prices finished Friday well below the daily highs and are slightly lower this morning. However, beans are finding support from strength in bean oil after India agreed to allow US bean oil imports as part of the agreed-upon trade deal.
SOYBEAN MEAL
The sharp rally in meal last week looked to be a speculative short-covering bounce, rather than a cash-driven upswing. This left prices overvalued relative to near-term fundamentals and has contributed to weaker basis levels, which is a warning sign for sustained upside. The rally also stimulated aggressive bean origination both in the US and Brazil, and crushers were eager to lock in margins and sell meal forward. Bean oil strength, due to bullish biofuel news last week and weekend news that India would be allowing US bean oil imports, tends to pressure meal values relative to oil and is contributing to today’s big gains in the long oil/short meal spreads
CORN
Corn was unable to follow beans higher on Friday and closed poorly, as better rain chances were forecast in southern Argentina while global grains stocks-to-use ratio is expected to hit a 25-year high this year. The lack of morning flash sales last week is an indication that the US is losing some export competitiveness, or that some global buyers were holding out for another pullback.
WHEAT
The market closed lower on Friday as it was unable to follow through from Thursday’s strong action, and there does not appear to be any major market news over the weekend. US export prices are expensive compared to other origins, and the bearish narrative of strong global supplies remains in place after Statistics Canada on Friday reported that wheat stocks as of December 31st were 5.9% above a year ago.
CATTLE
The cattle complex was very strong early in Friday’s session on aggressive cash bids before pulling back well below the highs but still closing modestly higher. President Trump finalized the deal with Argentina to quadruple the import of Argentine beef into the US, which was previously set at 2% of total beef imports and will now cap at 8%. This was part of the deal discussed late last year and was not a major surprise, although the headline may have sparked some selling.
HOGS
April hogs had a significant selloff late on Friday after testing Wednesday’s contract highs at 99.80 and falling back. However, open interest continued to rise and increased by another 4,000 contracts. CFTC data showed funds were strong buyers through Tuesday last week, as open interest increased by just over 15,000 contracts.
MILK CLASS III
March Class III milk finished last week with a sizable gain after reaching a 5-month high on Thursday.
ENERGIES
The US/Iran talks concluded on Friday without any big announcement, but geopolitical worries eased somewhat on reports that the two sides have agreed to continue to talk. On Friday, President Trump followed through on a previous threat with an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imports from any country that “directly or indirectly” purchases goods from Iran. Russia may see their oil exports restricted further. The European Commission on Friday proposed a sweeping ban on any services that support Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports, which goes well beyond previous sanctions.
March RBOB reached its highest level since June early Monday, while the nearby contract reached its highest level since November. March ULSD was moderately lower and inside the bottom half of Friday’s range.
March Natural Gas gapped lower early Monday, similar to a week ago. Temperatures in the northeastern US remained below normal over the weekend, but they are expected to gradually warm this week, and the 6-10-day and 8-14 day forecasts show above normal temperatures from the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast, with below normal temperatures along in the west.
DOLLAR INDEX
The greenback is modestly lower ahead of several key data releases this week that are likely to shape views on economic momentum and, more importantly, the near-term monetary policy outlook. While a sustained dollar downturn would likely require clearer evidence of an economic downturn, downside risks remain should labor data disappoint alongside continued disinflation or softer retail activity.
COCOA
More talk of high farmgate prices emerged on Friday this time from Ghana, the world’s second-largest producer. The country’s cocoa market regulator, Cocobod said Ghana has about 50,000 metric tons of unsold cocoa sitting at its ports. The CEO of the group said the so far this season just under 585,000 tons have been harvested and 530,000 tons have been sold. The total crop is still expected to be around 650,000 tons.
COFFEE
March Coffee extended its selloff early Monday. The market has moved back into its trading range from July bound by 295.00-266.80. Several analysts have projected a strong Brazilian crop for 2026. Last week, Conab put the nation’s total coffee output at 66.2 million bags, +17.1% from the previous year, with arabica production at 44.1 million, up more than 20% from 2025, citing the “on-year” the biennial cycle.
COTTON
March Cotton was moderately higher early Monday after falling to a new contract low on Friday. The bulls have little to bank on, but the bears may be reluctant to push lower ahead of the monthly USDA supply/demand report on Tuesday. Not that the trade is looking for a big change in the outlook. A Bloomberg poll has an average trade expectation for US 2025/26 cotton production at 13.90 million bales (range 13.80-14.00), which would be slightly lower than the 13.92 million in the January update.
SUGAR
March Sugar was higher early Monday after falling to its lowest level since November on Friday. So far the market has managed to hold support at the November 6 low of 14.04, but just barely. Speakers at the Dubai Sugar Conference last week forecasted another global sugar surplus for 2026/27 but not as big as the one in 2025/26. one caveat is the possibility that the arrival of El Nino this spring or summer could lower monsoon rainfall amounts in Southeast Asia and in India and lower expectations for the cane crops there.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold prices moved higher as a weaker dollar supported favorable buying conditions ahead of the releases of key US data this week, which will be fundamental in shaping the Fed policy outlook.
Silver futures are up 4.5% to $80.38. Silver is likely to continue to face extreme volatility in both directions in the near term. The silver, platinum and palladium markets are small relative to gold, making them vulnerable to speculative inflows.
Copper prices rose to start the week as the dollar declined. However, weak demand prospects, particularly in China, alongside rising warehouse inventories offer headwinds to bullish conditions. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was 0.4% higher at $13,043. Copper is down 10% from a record high of $14,527.50 on January 29.
EQUITIES
Equity indexes are lower following a volatile week that saw the Dow move above 50,000, as investors look ahead to a heavy slate of earnings alongside key inflation and labor market data. Recent price action continues to reflect unease within technology shares as markets reassess the potential impact of AI-driven disruption on legacy software and enterprise businesses. Despite a late-week rebound, the Nasdaq still recorded its fourth consecutive weekly decline, underscoring ongoing sector-specific pressure rather than broad equity weakness.
INTEREST RATES
Treasury yields were mixed, with the front end edging lower while longer maturities firmed, pushing the 10-year yield toward 4.22%. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s labor data and Friday’s inflation release, both of which are likely to shape near-term expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Elsewhere, Bloomberg News reported Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to curb their US Treasury exposure.
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