ADMIS News
Geopolitical Concerns Ease a Bit
December 26, 2025
COTTON
March Cotton gapped higher early Friday and traded to its highest level since November 14. The market has been supported by a strong export sales report on Tuesday that showed US cotton sales for the week ending December 11 at 304,689 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 14,960 for 2026/27 for a total of 319,649. This was up from 153,606 the previous week and was the strongest since November 6. It was also the second time above 300,000 this marketing year. Cumulative sales are still near the lowest in 11 years, and they have reached just 55% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 71% for this point in the marketing year, but the improvement in this report has been noticed. The US dollar was slightly higher early Friday, but it fell to its lowest level since October 6 on Wednesday. The weaker dollar helps US export competitiveness on the world market. February Crude Oil reached its highest level since December 9, which lends support to cotton on ideas higher oil prices make polyester more expensive.
COCOA
March Cocoa was slightly higher early Friday, reaching its highest level since December 17. Data from the Ivory Coast cocoa exporters’ association GEPEX s showed that the nation’s grind totaled 56,696 metric tons in November, down 6.7% from the same month last year. Cumulative grind since the 2025/26 season started in October has reached 100,771 tons, down 15.9% from last year, so the smaller decline in November relative to the total indicates there was at least an improvement over October. World Weather Inc. expected a restricted rainfall pattern through the next week in West African growing regions, which is normal for this time of year. Conditions should be good for harvest and drying of pods. The trade will be on the lookout for reports on the severity of the Harmattan wind. ICE cocoa stocks increased by 3,684 bags on Wednesday to 1.631 million, their first increase since November 28. London is closed for Boxing Day, leaving little direction for the NY market to start.
COFFEE
March Coffee was near unchanged early Wednesday in narrow, holiday trade. Traders told Reuters that the supply of newly harvested beans in Vietnam had started to build up, which has enabled more active trade. World Weather Inc. said that a the dry spell in Brazil coffee areas will continue through the weekend, but they look for a change in the pattern next week with more frequent shower and thunderstorm activity that will replenish soil moisture and help maintain a favorable outlook for tree and cherry development. Vietnam’s coffee areas were mostly dry Tuesday, and similar conditions will occur through the next week, allowing for coffee maturation and harvesting in a mostly favorable environment. ICE certified coffee stocks increased by 2,713 bags on Wednesday to 456,477, the largest since October 23. Stocks have increased for 10 of the last 11 sessions.
SUGAR
March Sugar was slightly lower early Friday after reaching its highest level since October 23 on Wednesday. Recent Commitment of Traders data showed managed money traders were net short 166,702 as of December 16, which showed some short covering had occurred after the net short had reached a six-year high of 205,988 in November, but this is still historically large and leaves the market vulnerable to more short covering if resistance levels are taken out. Safras & Mercado said on Monday that it expects Brazil center-south region sugar production to reach 38 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, which would be down 5% from the 2025/26. They expect crushing mills to allocate 47% of their cane to sugar production, down from 49% in 2025/26, as they expect ethanol demand to grow. February Crude Oil reached its highest level since December 9 early Friday, which helps improve margins for ethanol production, but keep in mind that prices only recently were at eight-month lows. Low sugar prices may have had more to do with the switch to ethanol.
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