Written Commentary
A Dozen Tankers Waiting in Venezuela
December 24, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Shortened hours today due to Holiday. Grains closed Thursday. Reopen Friday 8:30AM CT. Managed fund managers are expected to adjust positions prior to year end. Stocks are slightly lower. USD is lower. Crude is slightly higher. Gold, silver and copper are higher. 4 days until the end. 2026 will bring question about global economy, trade wars, US Supreme Court decision on US tariffs and global tension. US hog and pig report was negative. Pigs per litter was a new record. Normal Brazil rains are expected. S 1/3 Argentina could remain dry.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.68. Some estimate China has bought 9.0 mmt of US soybeans vs 12.0 expected. US Dec 11 US soybean export commit is near 947.1 mil bu vs 1,417.1 ly. USDA goal is 1,635 mil bu vs 1,882 ly. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout closer to 360 mil bu vs USDA 290 due to lower exports. Some look for USDA to increase US 2025 soybean yield slightly in January due to record pod count. US soymeal export sales were 616 mt and well above estimates. This supported futures. Total soymeal commit is near 8.5 mmt vs 7.7 ly. USDA goal is 17.4 vs 16.6 ly.
CORN
CH is near 4.49. CH continues to inch higher on solid US exports and slow farmer selling. US Dec 11 US corn export commit is near 1,873,1 mil bu vs 1,429.6 ly. USDA goal is 3,200 mil bu vs 2,858 ly. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout closer to 2,325 mil bu vs USDA 2,029 due to lower domestic use. Some look for USDA to drop US 2025 corn yield 2 bpa in January. Same group feels USDA needs to drop the yield 4 bpa to push prices above resistance.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.20. KWH is near 5.32. MWH is near 5.79. Wheat futures and most commodities are seeing a Santa rally into the holiday. Dec 11 US wheat export commit is 725.8 mil bu vs 593.5 ly. USDA goal is 900 mil bu vs 826 ly. US south plains temps are warmer than normal and could make crop vulnerable to cold spell.
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