Global Ag News For Dec 12.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Sinograin plans second soybean auction as China prepares for US arrivals

China’s state stockpiler Sinograin will auction another half a million metric tons of soybeans next week, its second such sale in as many weeks, as it moves to make room for U.S. arrivals amid ample domestic supplies.

At the auction scheduled for 1:30 p.m. (0530 GMT) on Tuesday, Sinograin will offer 513,900 tons of imported soybeans produced between 2022 and 2024, the National Grain Trade Center said in a notice published on Friday.

On Thursday, Sinograin sold most of the 512,500 tons offered in its first state-reserve auction after a three-month pause.

The move comes as China steps up purchases of U.S. cargoes following a trade truce with Washington in late October, even though the country sits on a glut of supplies due to record South American arrivals and sluggish demand.

Traders expect Sinograin to offer around 300,000 to 500,000 tons in upcoming weekly auctions, with total sales likely to reach 4 million tons in the current auction round.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 8 1/2; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil down 0.27.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 1/2 in SRW, down 10 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 20 1/4; Soymeal down $6.70; Soyoil down 1.06.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 7 3/4 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 51 3/4; Soymeal down $19.10; Soyoil down 1.50.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.1% in SRW, down 7.8% in HRW, down 2.4% in HRS; Corn is down 5.6%; Soybeans up 8.8%; Soymeal down 2.9%; Soyoil up 27.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 16 yuan; Soymeal up 19; Soyoil down 18; Palm oil down 88; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is down 45.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 45 ringgit (-1.11%) at 4018.

There were changes in registrations (25 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 47 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 204 Soymeal; 33 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 11 were: SRW Wheat up 4,003 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,610, Corn up 900, Soybeans down 3,732, Soymeal up 119, Soyoil down 3,541.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 12 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold risks expected in the Northern Plains, Midwest/Northeast, while the West will remain warmer during the next 5-day period. Heavy rains limited to the Northwest, with snowfall in the Northern Plains/Midwest U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with above-normal rainfall limited to Northeast Argentina, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across Europe over the next week, with most regions experiencing below-normal precipitation, except the U.K., Spain, and Scandinavia.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with above normal temperatures in the East. Above-normal precipitation is expected in the Southeast and East Asia.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL EUROPE AND THE BLACK SEA’S WINTER WHEAT BELTS

What to Watch:

• Dry spells across Europe and the Black Sea region
• Warmer-than-normal temperatures across Europe and the Black Sea region

 

Northern Plains: Another clipper is producing a band of mixed precipitation across the region on Thursday. One more clipper will move through Friday into Saturday, producing another band of mostly snow that could be heavy. Cold air will flow into the region Thursday, but will quickly move out by Monday, being replaced by largely warm air. Cold air will be lingering across western Canada though, and the storm track to the north may bring through some showers and a little taste of that cold next week.

Central/Southern Plains: The storm track to the north has allowed some warmer air into the region. However, a strong cold front will move through on Friday with another blast of colder air. That should be brief though as warmer air moves in early next week. Precipitation is generally not expected, but a few spots in Nebraska could see some light amounts over the next couple of days. The storm track will be even farther north next week.

Midwest: A clipper moved out on Wednesday after bringing widespread showers to the east. Two more clippers will bring streaks of snow through on Thursday and then Friday into Saturday. The streaks will line up fairly close to each other. Lake-effect snow will occur over the weekend as well. Another blast of extremely cold, arctic air is forecast again this weekend. It will be very intense and some areas may not make it above zero, but will only last a couple of days with warmer air moving in next week. The storm track will shift north into Canada, but some showers may still occur next week.

Delta: Recent precipitation in the Midwest produced a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system throughout the winter. Two more clippers will move through the north over the next few days, keeping the Delta region fairly dry and promoting slow falls in water levels on the rivers. Some showers will be possible around the middle of next week with a front passing through, but rainfall amounts continue to trend below normal.

Brazil: Central Brazil has seen a vast improvement in soil moisture due to heavy rain over the last week, favoring developing to reproductive soybeans. Showers continue there for the foreseeable future, though not at the same intensity as over the last week. A stronger system moved through the south on Tuesday with widespread rainfall and pockets of heavy rain to improve soil moisture. Another front will bring heavier showers to south-central areas on Friday and Saturday with one more early next week. Conditions are either favorable or improving.

Argentina: Though the pattern has been slower with rainfall chances, soil moisture is still favorable after an active spring. A couple of chances for patchy rainfall continue this week and weekend, but rainfall is coming at a below-normal pace outside of the north and next week is forecast to be much drier. Issues with some areas getting too dry for developing corn and soybeans will be a concern with time.

 

The player sheet for 12/11 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN AND CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private export sales of 490,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans, including 264,000 tons to China and 226,000 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. The USDA also confirmed sales of 186,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• SOFT WHEAT, DURUM, AND BARLEY PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 125,000 metric tons of soft wheat, about 100,000 tons of durum and around 125,000 tons of animal feed barley in an international tender for the same volume on Thursday.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed group Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal late on Thursday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the U.S. in an international tender on Thursday.
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE, NEW TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) on Thursday purchased around 60,000 to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat to be sourced from worldwide origins in a private deal without issuing an international tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh was estimated at $394.95 CIF liner out.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 58,244 metric tons of rice to be mainly sourced from China.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Nov. 13

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 13, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Germany with 191k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 767k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Nov. 13

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 13, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 10.6k tons of the 27.5k tons of pork sold in the week
• Mexico led in beef purchases

 

Brazil 2025-26 Soybean Crop Seen at 177.12M Tons: Conab

Output est. cut from 177.6m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 179.2m tons
• Yield seen lower at 3,620 kg/ha vs 3,620 kg/ha last month
• Area planted lowered to 48.936m ha vs 49.063m ha last month
• Corn production est. raised to 138.9m tons vs 138.8m tons
• Cotton production est. cut to 3.96m tons vs 4.028m tons

 

China’s grain output rises 1.2% in 2025 to new record

China’s total grain output hit a new record this year, up 1.2% from 2024 to 714.9 million tons, its statistics bureau said on Friday, as Beijing prioritises higher output in its quest to achieve food security.

China is highly reliant on imports to feed its population of 1.4 billion and several trade wars with major agricultural trade partner the United States have accelerated the push at home towards self-sufficiency including investments in machinery and seed technology.

Rice production in 2025 rose to 209 million tons, up 0.7%, while wheat output was steady at 140.1 million tons.

Corn jumped again to 301.2 million tons, up 2.1% from the previous year’s record of 294.92 million tons.

The total sown area for grain grew 0.1% to 119.4 million hectares.

 

Argentina Wheat Estimate Jumps to 27.7m Tons From 24.5m: Rosario

Wheat production for the 2025-26 crop seen 13% higher in December than in November, the Rosario Board of Trade says in its monthly report.

• That’s easily a record in data going back 25 years
• The m/m increase is attributed to a bigger-than-previously-thought planted area and higher yield estimate
  • Average yield now seen at 4.1m tons/hectare vs. 3.77m last month
  • Yields are “unimaginably” high, analysts wrote
• Harvest is 58% complete

SOY/CORN

• Soy planting 64% complete
• Area estimate of 16.4m hectares (40.5m acres) and production estimate of 47m tons both maintained
• Corn planting 57% complete
• Area estimate of 8m ha and production estimate of 61m tons both maintained

 

Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest at 55.5 million tons so far, ministry says

Ukrainian farmers had threshed about 55.5 million metric tons of grain from 92.4% of the sown area as of December 11, the economy ministry said on Friday.

The ministry gave no comparative data.

Ukraine plans to harvest about 60 million tons of grain in 2025, officials have said, against 56 million tons in 2024.

 

GIWA trims Western Australian crop forecasts, still predicts record harvest

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) slightly lowered its estimates for the state’s 2025/26 production of wheat, barley and canola on Friday but said the harvest of winter crops was still on track to be the biggest ever.

Western Australia is the largest crop exporting region of Australia, one of the world’s biggest shippers of grains and canola seed. Harvesting in the state is around halfway complete.

Large Australian production will put downward pressure on global prices. Benchmark Chicago wheat futures fell to their lowest levels since 2020 in October amid abundant global supply. Wv1GRA/

In a monthly crop report, GIWA cut its estimate for Western Australian wheat production by 50,000 metric tons to 13 million tons.

It trimmed its expectations for barley by 50,000 tons to 7.42 million tons and for canola by 130,000 tons to 4.17 million tons.

Those forecasts compare with average production over the last five years in the state of 11.2 million tons of wheat, 5.2 million tons of barley and 2.8 million tons of canola.

Western Australia has been at the forefront of rising productivity in Australia, where farmers have increased yields despite declining growing-season rainfall.

GIWA said the speed of the harvest in some areas had put strain on infrastructure and logistics and in some cases slowed progress.

Wheat grain quality has been mixed but barley quality has been mostly very good, the higher-than-expected yields often being driven by larger seed size, it said.

Earlier this month, the Australian government said it expected national production this season of 35.6 million tons of wheat, the third-biggest harvest on record, 15.7 million tons of barley, a record amount, and 7.2 million tons of canola, the second-most on record.

Following are GIWA’s December estimates and comparisons with last month’s forecasts and last season’s production. Crop numbers are in metric tons.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 549k tons in the week ending Dec. 6 from 605k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 8.3% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 24.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.11 per short ton, an increase of $0.52 from the previous week

 

US senators push USDA for urgent action on bird flu vaccine

• Senators tell USDA to prioritize science in bird flu vaccine development
• USDA pledged $100 million for bird flu vaccine research in March
• Poultry industry divided on vaccination due to trade concerns

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators this week urged the administration of President Donald Trump to finalize a science-based plan for developing a bird flu vaccine for livestock, according to a letter seen by Reuters.

More than 180 million chickens, turkeys and other poultry have been killed due to an outbreak of bird flu that began in 2022. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in June that it was developinga potential poultry vaccination plan, but has not released further details.

The USDA should take “renewed action” to fight bird flu as infections rise during the winter months, said 23 U.S. senators in a letter sent on Wednesday to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and reported first by Reuters.

“Any finalized vaccine strategy must take into account feedback from animal health stakeholders, industry experts, and be grounded in sound science,” said the letter, led by Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the top Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, and Republican U.S. Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota.

Other signatories to the letter include Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota and several Republican and Democratic members of the Senate Agriculture Committee.

In March, the USDA pledged$100 million to research vaccines and therapeutics for egg-laying chickens as part of a broader strategy to fight bird flu, which had driven egg prices to record highs.

The agency said in June it had received 417 proposals for the funds, but has not announced further details.

The Trump administration in May canceled a $700 million contract with Moderna MRNA.O to develop a human bird flu vaccine. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime anti-vaccine activist, has cut other funding for vaccine research and scrapped long-held federal vaccine guidance.

The poultry industry is divided on vaccination because of the potential to hurt exports. The senators urged Rollins in their letter to “work closely with trading partners and impacted producers to fully assess and manage any potential trade implications” of a vaccine plan.

The USDA told Reuters in late November that the agency had not shared a plan for poultry vaccination with trading partners.

 

China Groups Urge Firms to Halt Phosphate Exports Until August

Chinese fertilizer industry groups are urging major producers to suspend exports of phosphate-based farm nutrients, in a move to ensure adequate domestic supply and cool prices ahead of spring planting.

China Agricultural Means of Production Association and China Phosphate & Compound Fertilizer Industry Association summoned major phosphate producers and traders for a meeting and urged them to suspend outbound shipments until August, state media reported late Thursday.

The Asian nation once dominated the global phosphate fertilizer market. But it has been restricting exports since 2021 to prioritize domestic supply by keeping outbound shipments tightly restricted and subject to policy controls. The latest move, which could amount to a de facto ban, will mark a further tightening of Beijing’s controls and could push up global phosphate prices that have only just come down from multi-year highs.

Chinese industry groups typically work closely with government agencies, relaying policy priorities and effectively performing some quasi-regulatory roles. The meeting on Thursday was also held under the direction of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s state planner.

Sharp price swings in some regions have disrupted stockpiling of phosphate fertilizers ahead of spring planting, even though overall supply is adequate, the report said, citing talks at the meeting. Higher costs and seasonal demand have fueled the volatility, prompting calls for stronger measures to stabilize production and prices. Producers have also been urged to keep operating at high capacity levels and avoid output cuts.

Sufficient phosphate fertilizer supply and stable prices are essential for motivating farmers to increase planting and output. China has refocused on grain security in recent years, after the Covid-19 pandemic and intensified geopolitical tensions disrupted the global agriculture supply chain. It’s a top priority that has now gained even more prominence on the central leadership’s policy agenda.

 

 

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